The games that matter most for the playoff, week 11

Every week 11 game, ranked by how much of the 12-team field it is expected to move, across 2.5 million simulated seasons.

1. 1Ole MissatOklahomaSat, time TBA0.28Most at stakeOle Miss55.4Ohio State5.3Kentucky4.7
2. 2Wake ForestatSMUSat 12:00 PM ET0.28Most at stakeWake Forest57.0SMU9.0Louisville6.7
3. 3TexasatLSUSat, time TBA0.28Most at stakeLSU51.7Texas36.1Ohio State6.0
4. 4USCatIndianaSat 3:30 PM ET, CBS0.28Most at stakeIndiana67.8USC43.4Oregon13.8
5. 5Texas TechatOklahoma StateSat, time TBA0.24Most at stakeTexas Tech46.8Oklahoma State9.1Oregon5.5
6. 6FloridaatKentuckySat, time TBA0.23Most at stakeKentucky44.9Ole Miss9.7Texas5.3
7. 7TennesseeatTexas A&MSat, time TBA0.23Most at stakeTennessee45.3Ole Miss4.0LSU3.7
8. 8Oregon StateatBoise StateSat 6:00 PM ET, USA Net0.20Most at stakeBoise State42.1New Mexico30.3Oregon State5.6
9. 9IllinoisatUCLAFri 9:00 PM ET, Fox0.20Most at stakeUCLA46.9Ohio State10.2Oregon4.1
10. 10BayloratBYUSat, time TBA0.20Most at stakeBYU40.0Baylor7.9Texas Tech4.2
11. 11UtahatArizonaSat, time TBA0.18Most at stakeArizona31.4Utah18.7Houston4.7
12. 12HoustonatColoradoFri 10:15 PM ET, ESPN0.13Most at stakeHouston36.9BYU3.2Oklahoma State3.0
13. 13MichiganatOregonSat 3:30 PM ET, FS10.11Most at stakeOregon30.4Indiana6.6Iowa3.5
14. 14NorthwesternatOhio StateSat 12:00 PM ET, Fox0.11Most at stakeOhio State34.9Indiana3.7Oregon3.6
15. 15LouisvilleatNorth CarolinaSat, time TBA0.08Most at stakeLouisville6.7Ole Miss4.4SMU4.2
16. 16South CarolinaatArkansasSat 7:45 PM ET, SEC Network0.07Most at stakeSouth Carolina11.1Kentucky3.2Houston1.8
17. 17DukeatMiamiSat 12:00 PM ET, ABC0.06Most at stakeMiami16.3Duke9.7Wake Forest5.7
18. 18MissouriatGeorgiaSat, time TBA0.06Most at stakeMissouri18.3Georgia17.5Texas2.9
19. 19UNLVatNew MexicoSat 7:30 PM ET, CW0.05Most at stakeNew Mexico13.0Boise State8.7Oregon State1.6
20. 20PurdueatIowaSat, time TBA0.05Most at stakeIowa10.9Ohio State7.3Oregon3.8
21. 21AuburnatMississippi StateSat 12:00 PM ET0.05Most at stakeTennessee2.8Ole Miss2.2Texas1.5
22. 22AlabamaatVanderbiltSat 12:45 PM ET, SEC Network0.04Most at stakeAlabama19.3Ole Miss5.5Tennessee3.2
23. 23CincinnatiatIowa StateSat, time TBA0.03Most at stakeTexas Tech3.3Houston2.3BYU2.2
24. 24WisconsinatMarylandSat 12:00 PM ET, FS10.03Most at stakeOhio State2.9Wisconsin2.4Iowa1.5
25. 25Fresno StateatTexas StateSat 4:00 PM ET, CW0.03Most at stakeTexas2.2USC1.2Ole Miss0.8
26. 26Arizona StateatUCFSat, time TBA0.03Most at stakeHouston2.2BYU2.0Texas Tech1.8
27. 27Florida StateatPittsburghFri 7:00 PM ET, ESPN0.03Most at stakeBYU1.2Ole Miss1.0Tennessee0.9
28. 28North TexasatUTSASat 9:00 PM ET, ESPNU0.03Most at stakeNorth Texas1.9Indiana1.8Texas1.8
29. 29KansasatWest VirginiaSat, time TBA0.03Most at stakeArizona2.0Texas Tech1.1Ole Miss1.0
30. 30Kansas StateatTCUSat, time TBA0.02Most at stakeBYU3.2Houston2.4Arizona1.3
31. 31WashingtonatMichigan StateSat 4:15 PM ET, BTN0.02Most at stakeIowa1.9UCLA1.4USC0.9
32. 32SyracuseatNC StateSat 12:00 PM ET, ACC Network0.02Most at stakeWake Forest1.5Tennessee0.6Ole Miss0.6
33. 33MinnesotaatPenn StateSat 7:00 PM ET0.02Most at stakeIowa2.5USC1.2UCLA1.1
34. 34James MadisonatUConnSat 12:00 PM ET, CBSSN0.02Most at stakeOhio State0.8New Mexico0.6Houston0.6
35. 35NebraskaatRutgersSat 12:30 PM ET, BTN0.02Most at stakeOregon2.9Indiana1.0Iowa0.8
36. 36Boston CollegeatNotre DameSat 3:30 PM ET, NBC0.02Most at stakeNotre Dame49.7Ole Miss6.0Tennessee5.4
37. 37Colorado StateatWashington StateSat 10:30 PM ET, CBSSN0.02Most at stakeArizona1.1BYU1.1Texas Tech0.5
38. 38OhioatMiami (OH)Tue 8:00 PM ET, ESPN20.02Most at stakeOhio State0.8Texas Tech0.6BYU0.6
39. 39Georgia TechatClemsonSat 12:30 PM ET, CW0.01Most at stakeLSU2.4Tennessee1.8SMU0.9
40. 40Utah StateatSan Diego StateSat 9:30 PM ET, USA Net0.01Most at stakeUCLA1.1Boise State1.0Utah0.7
41. 41North Dakota StateatHawai'iSat 11:00 PM ET, CW0.01Most at stakeNew Mexico1.4Boise State1.1BYU0.4
42. 42MemphisatSouth FloridaThu 8:00 PM ET, ESPN0.01Most at stakeBoise State1.6New Mexico1.1Ohio State0.3
43. 43Kent StateatBowling GreenTue 7:00 PM ET, ESPNU0.01Most at stakeOhio State0.7BYU0.7Houston0.5
44. 44New Mexico StateatMissouri StateSat 3:00 PM ET, ESPN+0.01Most at stakeNew Mexico1.3Boise State0.9Tennessee0.6
45. 45NevadaatNorthern IllinoisSat 3:30 PM ET, MW+0.01Most at stakeNew Mexico0.9UCLA0.8Boise State0.7
46. 46Kennesaw StateatSam HoustonSat 2:00 PM ET, ESPN+0.01Most at stakeTennessee1.4Texas Tech0.7Houston0.3
47. 47CaliforniaatVirginiaSat 3:30 PM ET, ACC Network0.01Most at stakeUCLA1.7Houston0.7Texas Tech0.6
48. 48Western MichiganatAkronTue 7:00 PM ET, CBSSN0.01Most at stakeBoise State2.3New Mexico1.9Wake Forest1.1
49. 49Florida InternationalatDelawareSat 3:00 PM ET, ESPN+0.01Most at stakeTennessee0.7Ole Miss0.5Ohio State0.5
50. 50TulaneatRiceSat 2:00 PM ET, ESPN+0.01Most at stakeHouston0.4Notre Dame0.4Indiana0.3
51. 51Georgia SouthernatGeorgia StateSat 3:30 PM ET, ESPN+0.01Most at stakeHouston1.7BYU0.5Oregon0.2
52. 52BuffaloatBall StateWed 7:30 PM ET, ESPN20.01Most at stakeOhio State1.5Ole Miss0.3Kentucky0.3
53. 53Florida AtlanticatTulsaSat 3:30 PM ET, ESPN+0.01Most at stakeTexas Tech0.7Ole Miss0.6Houston0.6
54. 54San José StateatAir ForceSat 7:00 PM ET, CBSSN0.01Most at stakeUSC0.7Ohio State0.6Oregon0.5
55. 55StanfordatVirginia TechSat, time TBA0.01Most at stakeWake Forest2.1Ohio State0.7Notre Dame0.5
56. 56TroyatSouth AlabamaSat 7:00 PM ET, ESPN+0.01Most at stakeKentucky1.0Ole Miss0.4Boise State0.3
57. 57Southern MissatLouisiana TechSat 5:00 PM ET, ESPN+0.01Most at stakeLSU2.1Ohio State0.6Iowa0.4
58. 58Arkansas StateatCoastal CarolinaSat 1:00 PM ET, ESPN+0.01Most at stakeHouston0.5Wake Forest0.4Tennessee0.3
59. 59App StateatMarshallSat 6:00 PM ET, ESPN+0.01Most at stakeOle Miss0.4Ohio State0.3Wake Forest0.3
60. 60LouisianaatUL MonroeThu 9:00 PM ET, ESPN20.01Most at stakeUSC0.8Ohio State0.7Ole Miss0.6
61. 61Jacksonville StateatWestern KentuckySat 3:30 PM ET, ESPN+0.01Most at stakeIndiana0.5Houston0.3Ole Miss0.2
62. 62Sacramento StateatCentral MichiganWed 7:30 PM ET, ESPNU0.01Most at stakeNew Mexico1.3Boise State1.0Wake Forest0.5
63. 63WyomingatUTEPSat 10:00 PM ET, FS10.01Most at stakeBYU0.3Ole Miss0.3Arizona0.2
64. 64MassachusettsatToledoWed 7:30 PM ET0.00Most at stakeBoise State0.5New Mexico0.5Oregon0.3
65. 65East CarolinaatCharlotteSat 1:00 PM ET, ESPN+0.00Most at stakeOle Miss1.0Tennessee0.3Wake Forest0.2
66. 66UABatTempleSat 1:00 PM ET, ESPN+0.00Most at stakeNew Mexico0.2Tennessee0.2Ole Miss0.2
67. 67Middle TennesseeatLibertySat 3:30 PM ET, CBSSN0.00Most at stakeLSU0.5BYU0.4UCLA0.3

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