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Oregon playoff odds
Oregon makes the College Football Playoff in 24.6% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Oregon playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Oregon is 6-3 (4-2 in the Big Ten) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 24.6% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 4.6%), wins the Big Ten in 14.2%, earns a top-four seed and first-round bye in 0.2% and wins the national title in 1.00%, with 8.5 projected wins.
That is the 19th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Oregon fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Oregon's playoff odds the most.
- USC over Indiana, worth 13.75%
- Oklahoma State over Texas Tech, worth 5.51%
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 4.57%
- Illinois over UCLA, worth 4.11%
- Boise State over Oregon State, worth 3.86%
- Purdue over Iowa, worth 3.77%
What Oregon needs
Winning out puts Oregon at 43.2%. At 8-4 it makes the playoff in 0.6%. The game that decides the most is against Michigan in week 11: 30.8% with a win, 0.3% with a loss. It reaches the Big Ten title game in 24.7% of seasons. Winning it puts Oregon at 100.0% and losing it at 27.7%; missing it leaves 10.0%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Michigan | 79.8% | 30.8% | 0.3% |
| Week 12 | at Michigan State | 82.3% | 29.8% | 0.4% |
| Week 13 | vs Washington | 83.3% | 29.5% | 0.3% |
Oregon's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | 56.6% | 43.2% |
| 8-4 | 33.4% | 0.6% |
| 7-5 | 9.0% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 1.1% | <0.1% |
Oregon's results
week 1, beat Boise State 34-27; week 2, lost to Oklahoma State 31-39; week 3, beat Portland State 84-0; week 4, beat USC 41-27; week 6, lost to UCLA 15-17; week 7, beat Nebraska 17-14; week 8, lost to Illinois 10-21; week 9, beat Northwestern 34-26; week 10, beat Ohio State 41-28.
The Big Ten race
| Team | Wins the Big Ten | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 42.4% | 62.9% |
| UCLA | 20.8% | 67.0% |
| Oregon | 14.2% | 24.6% |
| Ohio State | 12.8% | 29.4% |
| USC | 6.0% | 13.0% |
| Iowa | 1.7% | 9.3% |
| Wisconsin | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Illinois | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Northwestern | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Minnesota | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big Ten title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Oregon make the College Football Playoff?
- Oregon is 6-3 and makes the playoff in 24.6% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 8.5 projected wins. It wins the Big Ten in 14.2% and the national title in 1.00%.
- What does Oregon need to make the playoff?
- Winning out puts Oregon at 43.2%. At 8-4 it makes the playoff in 0.6%. The game that decides the most is against Michigan in week 11: 30.8% with a win, 0.3% with a loss. It reaches the Big Ten title game in 24.7% of seasons. Winning it puts Oregon at 100.0% and losing it at 27.7%; missing it leaves 10.0%.
- Who should Oregon fans root for in week 11?
- USC over Indiana, worth 13.75% in playoff odds, then Oklahoma State over Texas Tech.
- What is Oregon's toughest game left?
- Hosting Michigan in week 11, with a 79.8% chance to win.
- How are Oregon's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Oregon's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.