CFB Rooting Guide
Methodology

The Conference USA title race

Updated November 8, after week 9, from 2.5 million simulated seasons.

Who wins the Conference USA
  1. Liberty78.2%
  2. Jacksonville State21.2%
  3. Everyone else0.5%
TeamConfOverallTitle gameWins Conference USAPlayoff
Liberty5-08-199.4%78.2%0.2%
Jacksonville State5-07-297.7%21.2%<0.1%
Delaware2-34-51.3%0.2%<0.1%
Middle Tennessee3-25-40.9%0.2%<0.1%
Kennesaw State2-33-60.3%<0.1%<0.1%
Missouri State2-33-60.2%<0.1%<0.1%
Florida International2-34-50.1%<0.1%<0.1%
Western Kentucky2-33-60.1%<0.1%<0.1%
New Mexico State2-33-6<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
Sam HoustonOut0-51-80.0%0.0%<0.1%

Clinching scenarios

  • LibertyClinches this week with a win over Middle Tennessee. Clinches by winning out.
  • Jacksonville StateClinches this week with a win over Western Kentucky and Liberty beating Middle Tennessee. Clinches by winning out.

Need help even if they win out: Delaware.

Out of the race: Sam Houston.

Likeliest title games

  1. 97.1% of seasonsLibertyLIB79%21%Jacksonville StateJXST
  2. 1.3% of seasonsLibertyLIB82%18%DelawareDEL
  3. 0.5% of seasonsJacksonville StateJXST73%27%Middle TennesseeMTSU

The games that decide the race

  1. 1Missouri StateatJacksonville StateWeek 120.04Most at stakeJacksonville State10.5Delaware6.0Middle Tennessee1.5
  2. 2Jacksonville StateatWestern KentuckyWeek 110.03Most at stakeJacksonville State7.0Delaware4.0Middle Tennessee1.0
  3. 3Jacksonville StateatDelawareWeek 130.02Most at stakeJacksonville State5.0Delaware2.9Middle Tennessee0.6
  4. 4DelawareatNew Mexico StateWeek 120.02Most at stakeJacksonville State2.7Delaware2.3Kennesaw State0.4
  5. 5LibertyatMissouri StateWeek 130.01Most at stakeMiddle Tennessee2.8Jacksonville State2.7Liberty2.6
  6. 6Middle TennesseeatLibertyWeek 110.01Most at stakeMiddle Tennessee10.9Liberty9.5Jacksonville State0.8
  7. 7Florida InternationalatDelawareWeek 110.01Most at stakeJacksonville State2.4Delaware2.0Kennesaw State0.4
  8. 8Middle TennesseeatSam HoustonWeek 120.01Most at stakeMiddle Tennessee1.6Liberty0.9Delaware0.7

How the Conference USA breaks ties

The top two teams in the conference standings meet in the title game. It is played at the higher seed's stadium.

Ties are broken in this order:

  1. Head-to-head results among the tied teams
  2. Record against all common conference opponents
  3. Record against common conference opponents, starting with the highest-placed and working down the standings
  4. The conference's ranking metric

Questions

Who is favored to win the Conference USA in 2026?
Liberty wins the Conference USA in 78.2% of simulated seasons, ahead of Jacksonville State (21.2%) and Delaware (0.2%).
Who will play in the Conference USA championship game?
The likeliest pairing is Liberty against Jacksonville State, in 97.1% of seasons. Liberty reaches the game in 99.4% and Jacksonville State in 97.7%.
How many Conference USA teams will make the College Football Playoff?
0.0 on average across the simulated seasons. Liberty makes it in 0.2%, Jacksonville State makes it in <0.1%, Delaware makes it in <0.1%.

Other conferences: ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Ten Mid-American Mountain West Pac-12 SEC Sun Belt

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