The ACC title race

Updated November 8, after week 9, from 2.5 million simulated seasons.

1. Miami70.6%
2. Wake Forest19.9%
3. Louisville4.0%
4. SMU3.5%
5. Everyone else1.9%

Team	Conf	Overall	Title game	Wins ACC	Playoff
Miami	6-0	8-1	99.7%	70.6%	96.1%
Wake Forest	5-1	8-1	63.3%	19.9%	43.1%
Louisville	5-2	6-3	13.6%	4.0%	4.1%
SMU	5-2	7-2	16.5%	3.5%	3.8%
Duke	4-2	7-2	4.8%	1.6%	1.7%
Clemson	4-2	6-3	2.1%	0.3%	0.4%
North CarolinaOut	2-3	5-4	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Pittsburgh	3-3	6-3	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Boston CollegeOut	2-4	4-5	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
CaliforniaOut	2-4	3-6	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
Florida StateOut	2-4	4-5	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
Georgia TechOut	1-5	2-7	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
NC StateOut	2-4	4-5	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
StanfordOut	2-4	4-5	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
SyracuseOut	2-5	4-5	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
VirginiaOut	2-4	4-5	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
Virginia Tech	3-3	6-3	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%

Clinching scenarios

• MiamiClinches this week with North Carolina beating Louisville and a win over Duke and Wake Forest beating SMU. Clinches by winning out.
• Wake ForestClinches by winning out.

Need help even if they win out: Louisville, SMU, Duke, Clemson.

Out of the race: North Carolina, Boston College, California, Florida State, Georgia Tech, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia.

Likeliest title games

1. 63.1% of seasonsMiamiMIA69%31%Wake ForestWAKE
2. 16.4% of seasonsMiamiMIA79%21%SMUSMU
3. 13.3% of seasonsMiamiMIA71%29%LouisvilleLOU
4. 4.7% of seasonsMiamiMIA67%33%DukeDUKE
5. 2.1% of seasonsMiamiMIA83%17%ClemsonCLEM

The games that decide the race

1. 1Wake ForestatSMUWeek 11Sat 12:00 PM ET0.32Most at stakeWake Forest66.4SMU38.5Louisville23.5
2. 2DukeatWake ForestWeek 13Sat, time TBA0.16Most at stakeWake Forest36.2Louisville15.1Duke14.8
3. 3LouisvilleatNorth CarolinaWeek 11Sat, time TBA0.13Most at stakeLouisville22.3SMU21.1Wake Forest4.2
4. 4PittsburghatLouisvilleWeek 12Sat, time TBA0.08Most at stakeLouisville17.9SMU16.9Wake Forest3.2
5. 5ClemsonatDukeWeek 12Fri 7:30 PM ET, ESPN0.08Most at stakeSMU12.9Wake Forest9.7Clemson6.9
6. 6Wake ForestatGeorgia TechWeek 12Sat, time TBA0.07Most at stakeWake Forest36.6Louisville19.9Duke6.3
7. 7LouisvilleatKentuckyWeek 13Sat, time TBA0.06Most at stakeLouisville13.0Wake Forest7.3SMU2.6
8. 8DukeatMiamiWeek 11Sat 12:00 PM ET, ABC0.06Most at stakeDuke24.5Wake Forest14.9SMU5.8

How the ACC breaks ties

The top two teams in the conference standings meet in the title game. It is played at a neutral site.

Ties are broken in this order:

1. Head-to-head results among the tied teams
2. SportSource Analytics' team success ranking

Teams that play different numbers of conference games can tie when they have as many conference wins or losses.

Questions

Who is favored to win the ACC in 2026?

Miami wins the ACC in 70.6% of simulated seasons, ahead of Wake Forest (19.9%) and Louisville (4.0%).

Who will play in the ACC championship game?

The likeliest pairing is Miami against Wake Forest, in 63.1% of seasons. Miami reaches the game in 99.7% and Wake Forest in 63.3%.

How many ACC teams will make the College Football Playoff?

1.5 on average across the simulated seasons. Miami makes it in 96.1%, Wake Forest makes it in 43.1%, Louisville makes it in 4.1%.

Other conferences: American Athletic Big 12 Big Ten Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West Pac-12 SEC Sun Belt

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