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Florida State playoff odds
Florida State makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Florida State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Florida State is 4-5 (2-4 in the ACC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the ACC in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 5.7 projected wins.
That is the 81st-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Florida State fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Florida State's playoff odds.
What Florida State needs
Even at 7-5, Florida State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 57.0% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Pittsburgh | 42.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs NC State | 77.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Florida | 45.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Florida State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | 17.3% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 39.7% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 34.3% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 8.7% | <0.1% |
Florida State's results
week 1, beat New Mexico State 34-17; week 1, lost to SMU 24-27; week 3, lost to Alabama 36-50; week 4, beat Central Arkansas 34-7; week 5, beat Virginia 38-7; week 6, lost to Louisville 20-44; week 7, lost to Miami 35-43; week 9, lost to Clemson 24-36; week 10, beat Boston College 31-24.
The ACC race
| Team | Wins the ACC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | 70.6% | 96.1% |
| Wake Forest | 19.9% | 43.1% |
| Louisville | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| SMU | 3.5% | 3.8% |
| Duke | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Clemson | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| North Carolina | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Pittsburgh | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Boston College | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| California | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The ACC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Florida State make the College Football Playoff?
- Florida State is 4-5 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 5.7 projected wins. It wins the ACC in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Florida State need to make the playoff?
- Even at 7-5, Florida State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 57.0% of seasons.
- Who should Florida State fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Florida State's playoff odds.
- What is Florida State's toughest game left?
- At Pittsburgh in week 11, with a 42.1% chance to win.
- How are Florida State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Florida State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.