simulating…
Miami playoff odds
Miami makes the College Football Playoff in 96.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
Playoff seed
Your team's games
Simulating a season…
Standings
Miami playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Miami is 8-1 (6-0 in the ACC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 96.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 98.4%), wins the ACC in 70.6%, earns a top-four seed and first-round bye in 60.1% and wins the national title in 14.69%, with 10.8 projected wins.
That is the 3rd-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 1.
Who Miami fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Miami's playoff odds the most.
- North Carolina over Louisville, worth 0.97%
- Clemson over Georgia Tech, worth 0.63%
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 0.57%
- Texas A&M over Tennessee, worth 0.51%
- Florida over Kentucky, worth 0.47%
- Colorado over Houston, worth 0.45%
What Miami needs
Miami can afford one loss. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 85.2%, at 9-3 in 51.1%. The game that decides the most is against Duke in week 11: 98.7% with a win, 82.3% with a loss. It reaches the ACC title game in 99.7% of seasons. Winning it puts Miami at 100.0% and losing it at 87.6%; missing it leaves 0.5%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Duke | 84.5% | 98.7% | 82.3% |
| Week 12 | vs Virginia Tech | 93.8% | 97.5% | 76.0% |
| Week 13 | vs Boston College | 98.2% | 96.7% | 68.7% |
Miami's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 11-1 | 78.3% | 100.0% |
| 10-2 | 19.9% | 85.2% |
| 9-3 | 1.7% | 51.1% |
Miami's results
week 1, beat Stanford 45-6; week 2, beat Florida A&M 77-7; week 3, beat Wake Forest 33-20; week 4, beat Central Michigan 52-3; week 5, beat Clemson 41-13; week 7, beat Florida State 43-35; week 8, beat Pittsburgh 52-23; week 9, beat North Carolina 38-35; week 10, lost to Notre Dame 24-31.
The ACC race
| Team | Wins the ACC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | 70.6% | 96.1% |
| Wake Forest | 19.9% | 43.1% |
| Louisville | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| SMU | 3.5% | 3.8% |
| Duke | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Clemson | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| North Carolina | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Pittsburgh | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Boston College | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| California | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The ACC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Miami make the College Football Playoff?
- Miami is 8-1 and makes the playoff in 96.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 10.8 projected wins. It wins the ACC in 70.6% and the national title in 14.69%.
- What does Miami need to make the playoff?
- Miami can afford one loss. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 85.2%, at 9-3 in 51.1%. The game that decides the most is against Duke in week 11: 98.7% with a win, 82.3% with a loss. It reaches the ACC title game in 99.7% of seasons. Winning it puts Miami at 100.0% and losing it at 87.6%; missing it leaves 0.5%.
- Who should Miami fans root for in week 11?
- North Carolina over Louisville, worth 0.97% in playoff odds, then Clemson over Georgia Tech.
- What is Miami's toughest game left?
- Hosting Duke in week 11, with a 84.5% chance to win.
- How are Miami's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Miami's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.