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Tennessee playoff odds
Tennessee makes the College Football Playoff in 43.0% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Tennessee playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Tennessee is 7-2 (4-2 in the SEC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 43.0% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 24.9%), wins the SEC in 5.5%, earns a top-four seed and first-round bye in 6.8% and wins the national title in 1.73%, with 8.8 projected wins.
That is the 11th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 17.
Who Tennessee fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Tennessee's playoff odds the most.
- Boston College over Notre Dame, worth 5.41%
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 3.94%
- Baylor over BYU, worth 3.85%
- SMU over Wake Forest, worth 3.44%
- Alabama over Vanderbilt, worth 3.23%
- Illinois over UCLA, worth 2.93%
What Tennessee needs
Winning out puts Tennessee at 99.7%. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 46.9%. The game that decides the most is against LSU in week 12: 71.9% with a win, 19.2% with a loss. It reaches the SEC title game in 16.4% of seasons. Winning it puts Tennessee at 100.0% and losing it at 98.1%; missing it leaves 32.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Texas A&M | 55.6% | 63.2% | 17.9% |
| Week 12 | vs LSU | 45.1% | 71.9% | 19.2% |
| Week 13 | at Vanderbilt | 82.1% | 50.3% | 9.5% |
Tennessee's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | 23.0% | 99.7% |
| 9-3 | 42.6% | 46.9% |
| 8-4 | 28.6% | 0.3% |
| 7-5 | 5.8% | <0.1% |
Tennessee's results
week 1, beat Furman 56-9; week 2, beat Georgia Tech 45-24; week 3, beat Kennesaw State 42-9; week 4, lost to Texas 17-20; week 5, beat Auburn 24-14; week 6, beat Arkansas 24-17; week 7, beat Alabama 26-10; week 8, lost to South Carolina 24-27; week 10, beat Kentucky 34-6.
The SEC race
| Team | Wins the SEC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 54.7% | 97.4% |
| Alabama | 27.4% | 97.8% |
| Texas | 10.2% | 76.8% |
| Tennessee | 5.5% | 43.0% |
| Kentucky | 1.0% | 39.6% |
| Ole Miss | 0.7% | 32.7% |
| LSU | 0.3% | 36.5% |
| Oklahoma | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| South Carolina | 0.1% | 8.3% |
| Missouri | <0.1% | 2.6% |
The SEC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Tennessee make the College Football Playoff?
- Tennessee is 7-2 and makes the playoff in 43.0% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 8.8 projected wins. It wins the SEC in 5.5% and the national title in 1.73%.
- What does Tennessee need to make the playoff?
- Winning out puts Tennessee at 99.7%. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 46.9%. The game that decides the most is against LSU in week 12: 71.9% with a win, 19.2% with a loss. It reaches the SEC title game in 16.4% of seasons. Winning it puts Tennessee at 100.0% and losing it at 98.1%; missing it leaves 32.1%.
- Who should Tennessee fans root for in week 11?
- Boston College over Notre Dame, worth 5.41% in playoff odds, then Oklahoma over Ole Miss.
- What is Tennessee's toughest game left?
- Hosting LSU in week 12, with a 45.1% chance to win.
- How are Tennessee's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Tennessee's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.