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Texas playoff odds
Texas makes the College Football Playoff in 76.8% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Texas playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Texas is 7-2 (4-2 in the SEC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 76.8% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 62.9%), wins the SEC in 10.2%, earns a top-four seed and first-round bye in 18.5% and wins the national title in 8.16%, with 9.1 projected wins.
That is the 7th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 8.
Who Texas fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Texas's playoff odds the most.
- Florida over Kentucky, worth 5.30%
- Boston College over Notre Dame, worth 3.25%
- Missouri over Georgia, worth 2.88%
- SMU over Wake Forest, worth 2.53%
- Baylor over BYU, worth 2.48%
- Ohio State over Northwestern, worth 2.22%
What Texas needs
Texas can afford one loss. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 88.6%, at 8-4 in 11.8%. The game that decides the most is at Texas A&M in week 13: 91.4% with a win, 42.7% with a loss. It reaches the SEC title game in 22.5% of seasons. Winning it puts Texas at 100.0% and losing it at 99.9%; missing it leaves 70.0%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at LSU | 46.3% | 96.1% | 60.0% |
| Week 12 | vs Arkansas | 95.1% | 79.4% | 26.0% |
| Week 13 | at Texas A&M | 69.9% | 91.4% | 42.7% |
Texas's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | 32.7% | 100.0% |
| 9-3 | 47.3% | 88.6% |
| 8-4 | 18.8% | 11.8% |
| 7-5 | 1.2% | <0.1% |
Texas's results
week 1, beat Texas State 59-7; week 2, beat Ohio State 24-23; week 3, beat UTSA 30-6; week 4, beat Tennessee 20-17; week 6, lost to Oklahoma 24-27; week 7, lost to Florida 24-27; week 8, beat Ole Miss 34-27; week 9, beat Mississippi State 31-3; week 10, beat Missouri 34-20.
The SEC race
| Team | Wins the SEC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 54.7% | 97.4% |
| Alabama | 27.4% | 97.8% |
| Texas | 10.2% | 76.8% |
| Tennessee | 5.5% | 43.0% |
| Kentucky | 1.0% | 39.6% |
| Ole Miss | 0.7% | 32.7% |
| LSU | 0.3% | 36.5% |
| Oklahoma | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| South Carolina | 0.1% | 8.3% |
| Missouri | <0.1% | 2.6% |
The SEC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Texas make the College Football Playoff?
- Texas is 7-2 and makes the playoff in 76.8% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 9.1 projected wins. It wins the SEC in 10.2% and the national title in 8.16%.
- What does Texas need to make the playoff?
- Texas can afford one loss. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 88.6%, at 8-4 in 11.8%. The game that decides the most is at Texas A&M in week 13: 91.4% with a win, 42.7% with a loss. It reaches the SEC title game in 22.5% of seasons. Winning it puts Texas at 100.0% and losing it at 99.9%; missing it leaves 70.0%.
- Who should Texas fans root for in week 11?
- Florida over Kentucky, worth 5.30% in playoff odds, then Boston College over Notre Dame.
- What is Texas's toughest game left?
- At LSU in week 11, with a 46.3% chance to win.
- How are Texas's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Texas's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.