The Mid-American title race

Updated November 8, after week 9, from 2.5 million simulated seasons.

1. Western Michigan38.6%
2. Toledo26.3%
3. Ohio23.3%
4. Buffalo9.1%
5. Miami (OH)2.7%

Team	Conf	Overall	Title game	Wins Mid-American	Playoff
Western Michigan	4-1	6-3	66.7%	38.6%	<0.1%
Toledo	4-1	7-2	47.1%	26.3%	<0.1%
Ohio	5-0	7-2	53.6%	23.3%	<0.1%
Buffalo	4-1	6-3	26.6%	9.1%	<0.1%
Miami (OH)	3-2	5-4	5.9%	2.7%	<0.1%
Central Michigan	2-3	4-5	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Massachusetts	2-3	5-4	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Kent State	2-3	3-6	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Eastern Michigan	3-3	4-6	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Ball State	2-3	3-6	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Bowling Green	2-3	2-7	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
AkronOut	0-5	1-8	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
Sacramento StateOut	1-6	2-8	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%

Clinching scenarios

• OhioClinches by winning out.

Need help even if they win out: Western Michigan, Toledo, Buffalo, Miami (OH).

Out of the race: Akron, Sacramento State.

Likeliest title games

1. 31.3% of seasonsWestern MichiganWMU60%40%OhioOHIO
2. 25.9% of seasonsWestern MichiganWMU50%50%ToledoTOL
3. 10.6% of seasonsToledoTOL60%40%OhioOHIO
4. 9.9% of seasonsOhioOHIO59%41%BuffaloBUFF
5. 8.8% of seasonsWestern MichiganWMU71%29%BuffaloBUFF
6. 7.6% of seasonsToledoTOL70%30%BuffaloBUFF

The games that decide the race

1. 1ToledoatOhioWeek 13Fri 12:00 PM ET0.37Most at stakeOhio73.9Toledo69.0Buffalo2.6
2. 2Miami (OH)atWestern MichiganWeek 13Tue, time TBA0.21Most at stakeWestern Michigan52.9Miami (OH)21.1Buffalo13.1
3. 3Central MichiganatBuffaloWeek 12Wed, time TBA0.19Most at stakeBuffalo38.0Toledo13.2Western Michigan10.3
4. 4BuffaloatBall StateWeek 11Wed 7:30 PM ET, ESPN20.16Most at stakeBuffalo34.4Toledo14.9Ohio7.3
5. 5OhioatMiami (OH)Week 11Tue 8:00 PM ET, ESPN20.16Most at stakeOhio32.2Buffalo14.1Miami (OH)11.0
6. 6BuffaloatAkronWeek 13Fri 12:00 PM ET0.14Most at stakeBuffalo32.1Toledo12.7Ohio8.4
7. 7Western MichiganatAkronWeek 11Tue 7:00 PM ET, CBSSN0.12Most at stakeWestern Michigan50.0Buffalo17.5Toledo14.8
8. 8Eastern MichiganatWestern MichiganWeek 12Tue 7:00 PM ET0.12Most at stakeWestern Michigan50.3Buffalo17.4Toledo15.2

How the Mid-American breaks ties

The top two teams in the conference standings meet in the title game. It is played at a neutral site.

Ties are broken in this order:

1. Head-to-head results among the tied teams
2. Record against all common conference opponents
3. Record against common conference opponents, starting with the highest-placed and working down the standings
4. The conference's ranking metric

Questions

Who is favored to win the Mid-American in 2026?

Western Michigan wins the Mid-American in 38.6% of simulated seasons, ahead of Toledo (26.3%) and Ohio (23.3%).

Who will play in the Mid-American championship game?

The likeliest pairing is Western Michigan against Ohio, in 31.3% of seasons. Western Michigan reaches the game in 66.7% and Ohio in 53.6%.

How many Mid-American teams will make the College Football Playoff?

0.0 on average across the simulated seasons. Toledo makes it in <0.1%, Ohio makes it in <0.1%, Western Michigan makes it in <0.1%.

Other conferences: ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Ten Conference USA Mountain West Pac-12 SEC Sun Belt

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