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Eastern Michigan playoff odds
Eastern Michigan makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Eastern Michigan playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Eastern Michigan is 4-6 (3-3 in the Mid-American) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Mid-American in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 4.8 projected wins.
That is the 79th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Eastern Michigan fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Eastern Michigan's playoff odds.
What Eastern Michigan needs
Even at 6-6, Eastern Michigan makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 10.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 12 | at Western Michigan | 13.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Kent State | 70.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Eastern Michigan's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | 10.1% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 63.1% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 26.8% | <0.1% |
Eastern Michigan's results
week 1, beat Sacramento State 28-17; week 1, lost to San José State 21-27; week 2, lost to Michigan State 7-35; week 3, lost to Wisconsin 10-54; week 4, beat Lindenwood 29-3; week 5, beat Massachusetts 38-14; week 6, beat Akron 25-23; week 7, lost to Toledo 14-34; week 8, lost to Ohio 20-24; week 10, lost to Central Michigan 7-35.
The Mid-American race
| Team | Wins the Mid-American | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan | 38.6% | <0.1% |
| Toledo | 26.3% | <0.1% |
| Ohio | 23.3% | <0.1% |
| Buffalo | 9.1% | <0.1% |
| Miami (OH) | 2.7% | <0.1% |
| Central Michigan | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Massachusetts | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Kent State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Ball State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Bowling Green | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mid-American title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Eastern Michigan make the College Football Playoff?
- Eastern Michigan is 4-6 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 4.8 projected wins. It wins the Mid-American in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Eastern Michigan need to make the playoff?
- Even at 6-6, Eastern Michigan makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 10.1% of seasons.
- Who should Eastern Michigan fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Eastern Michigan's playoff odds.
- What is Eastern Michigan's toughest game left?
- At Western Michigan in week 12, with a 13.4% chance to win.
- How are Eastern Michigan's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Eastern Michigan's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.