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San José State playoff odds
San José State makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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San José State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
San José State is 5-5 (3-3 in the Mountain West) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Mountain West in 0.3% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 5.8 projected wins.
That is the 115th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who San José State fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on San José State's playoff odds.
What San José State needs
Even at 8-5, San José State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the Mountain West title game in 2.1% of seasons. Winning it puts San José State at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 60.5% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Air Force | 22.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs UNLV | 34.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs North Dakota State | 26.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
San José State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8-5 | 3.2% | <0.1% |
| 7-6 | 17.4% | <0.1% |
| 6-7 | 39.9% | <0.1% |
| 5-8 | 39.5% | <0.1% |
San José State's results
week 1, lost to USC 26-42; week 1, beat Eastern Michigan 27-21; week 2, beat Cal Poly 30-20; week 3, lost to Fresno State 10-26; week 5, beat Hawai'i 20-16; week 6, lost to Wyoming 13-16; week 7, beat UTEP 24-11; week 8, lost to Nevada 13-28; week 9, lost to New Mexico 16-21; week 10, beat Northern Illinois 30-19.
The Mountain West race
| Team | Wins the Mountain West | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 70.1% | 10.9% |
| North Dakota State | 16.3% | <0.1% |
| UNLV | 8.3% | <0.1% |
| Air Force | 2.9% | <0.1% |
| Wyoming | 2.1% | <0.1% |
| San José State | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Nevada | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Hawai'i | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Northern Illinois | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UTEP | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mountain West title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will San José State make the College Football Playoff?
- San José State is 5-5 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 5.8 projected wins. It wins the Mountain West in 0.3% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does San José State need to make the playoff?
- Even at 8-5, San José State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the Mountain West title game in 2.1% of seasons. Winning it puts San José State at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 60.5% of seasons.
- Who should San José State fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on San José State's playoff odds.
- What is San José State's toughest game left?
- At Air Force in week 11, with a 22.9% chance to win.
- How are San José State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in San José State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.