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Nevada playoff odds
Nevada makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Nevada playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Nevada is 3-6 (2-3 in the Mountain West) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Mountain West in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 4.6 projected wins.
That is the 104th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Nevada fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Nevada's playoff odds.
What Nevada needs
Even at 6-6, Nevada makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 13.5% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Northern Illinois | 71.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Hawai'i | 56.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at UNLV | 28.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Nevada's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | 13.5% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 40.1% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 35.6% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 10.8% | <0.1% |
Nevada's results
week 1, beat Western Kentucky 49-14; week 2, lost to Montana State 7-20; week 3, lost to Middle Tennessee 20-27; week 4, lost to Air Force 33-36; week 6, beat UTEP 30-13; week 7, lost to North Dakota State 17-31; week 8, beat San José State 28-13; week 9, lost to UCLA 0-27; week 10, lost to New Mexico 3-31.
The Mountain West race
| Team | Wins the Mountain West | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 70.1% | 10.9% |
| North Dakota State | 16.3% | <0.1% |
| UNLV | 8.3% | <0.1% |
| Air Force | 2.9% | <0.1% |
| Wyoming | 2.1% | <0.1% |
| San José State | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Nevada | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Hawai'i | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Northern Illinois | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UTEP | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mountain West title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Nevada make the College Football Playoff?
- Nevada is 3-6 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 4.6 projected wins. It wins the Mountain West in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Nevada need to make the playoff?
- Even at 6-6, Nevada makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 13.5% of seasons.
- Who should Nevada fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Nevada's playoff odds.
- What is Nevada's toughest game left?
- At UNLV in week 13, with a 28.2% chance to win.
- How are Nevada's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Nevada's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.