The Big 12 title race

Updated November 8, after week 9, from 2.5 million simulated seasons.

1. Utah49.3%
2. Texas Tech22.0%
3. BYU8.3%
4. Houston8.3%
5. Arizona5.0%
6. Oklahoma State4.4%
7. Everyone else2.8%

Team	Conf	Overall	Title game	Wins Big 12	Playoff
Utah	6-0	9-0	89.9%	49.3%	90.7%
Texas Tech	4-1	7-1	43.5%	22.0%	41.4%
BYU	4-2	7-2	18.1%	8.3%	27.4%
Houston	4-2	7-2	19.8%	8.3%	29.8%
Arizona	4-2	7-2	11.2%	5.0%	13.4%
Oklahoma State	4-2	6-3	10.5%	4.4%	4.4%
Baylor	4-2	6-3	6.7%	2.8%	2.8%
West Virginia	2-3	5-3	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
UCF	3-3	5-4	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Arizona State	3-3	5-4	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Cincinnati	2-4	5-4	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
ColoradoOut	1-5	3-6	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
Iowa State	2-4	4-5	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
KansasOut	1-5	3-6	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
Kansas StateOut	1-5	4-5	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
TCU	2-4	4-5	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%

Clinching scenarios

• UtahClinches by winning out.
• Texas TechClinches by winning out.

Need help even if they win out: BYU, Houston, Arizona, Oklahoma State, Baylor.

Out of the race: Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State.

Likeliest title games

1. 37.2% of seasonsUtahUTAH51%49%Texas TechTTU
2. 17.5% of seasonsUtahUTAH59%41%HoustonHOU
3. 14.0% of seasonsUtahUTAH56%44%BYUBYU
4. 9.9% of seasonsUtahUTAH58%42%Oklahoma StateOKST
5. 6.5% of seasonsUtahUTAH59%41%BaylorBAY
6. 4.7% of seasonsUtahUTAH56%44%ArizonaARIZ

The games that decide the race

1. 1Texas TechatOklahoma StateWeek 11Sat, time TBA0.26Most at stakeTexas Tech52.2Oklahoma State21.6Houston19.8
2. 2Texas TechatBaylorWeek 12Sat, time TBA0.22Most at stakeTexas Tech44.2Baylor15.6Houston10.2
3. 3UtahatArizonaWeek 11Sat, time TBA0.18Most at stakeArizona26.1Utah22.9Houston9.5
4. 4BayloratHoustonWeek 13Sat, time TBA0.18Most at stakeHouston30.0Baylor17.6BYU14.0
5. 5BayloratBYUWeek 11Sat, time TBA0.14Most at stakeBYU26.1Baylor19.1Texas Tech8.8
6. 6TCUatTexas TechWeek 13Thu 8:00 PM ET, ESPN0.13Most at stakeTexas Tech36.4Houston11.0BYU9.3
7. 7UtahatTCUWeek 12Sat, time TBA0.12Most at stakeUtah26.2Arizona15.2BYU5.8
8. 8BYUatKansasWeek 12Sat, time TBA0.11Most at stakeBYU22.1Texas Tech15.1Oklahoma State4.8

How the Big 12 breaks ties

The top two teams in the conference standings meet in the title game. It is played at a neutral site.

Ties are broken in this order:

1. Head-to-head results among the tied teams
2. Record against all common conference opponents
3. Record against common conference opponents, starting with the highest-placed and working down the standings
4. Combined conference winning percentage of conference opponents
5. Total wins
6. The conference's ranking metric

Questions

Who is favored to win the Big 12 in 2026?

Utah wins the Big 12 in 49.3% of simulated seasons, ahead of Texas Tech (22.0%) and BYU (8.3%).

Who will play in the Big 12 championship game?

The likeliest pairing is Utah against Texas Tech, in 37.2% of seasons. Utah reaches the game in 89.9% and Texas Tech in 43.5%.

How many Big 12 teams will make the College Football Playoff?

2.1 on average across the simulated seasons. Utah makes it in 90.7%, Texas Tech makes it in 41.4%, Houston makes it in 29.8%.

Other conferences: ACC American Athletic Big Ten Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West Pac-12 SEC Sun Belt

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