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West Virginia playoff odds
West Virginia makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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West Virginia playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
West Virginia is 5-3 (2-3 in the Big 12) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Big 12 in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 6.0 projected wins.
That is the 46th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who West Virginia fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move West Virginia's playoff odds the most.
- Baylor over BYU, worth 0.01%
- Houston over Colorado, worth 0.01%
- TCU over Kansas State, worth 0.01%
- Arizona over Utah, worth 0.01%
What West Virginia needs
West Virginia needs help even if it wins out. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 4.0%. The game that decides the most is at Utah in week 13: 0.2% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 68.8% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 | at Texas Tech | 12.6% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 11 | vs Kansas | 50.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Houston | 27.6% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Utah | 10.4% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
West Virginia's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | 4.7% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 20.9% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 42.7% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 31.2% | <0.1% |
West Virginia's results
week 1, beat Coastal Carolina 31-24; week 2, beat UT Martin 52-7; week 3, beat Virginia 38-27; week 4, lost to Oklahoma State 24-41; week 5, lost to Iowa State 42-45; week 6, lost to Arizona 31-52; week 7, beat Cincinnati 45-42; week 8, beat TCU 24-20.
The Big 12 race
| Team | Wins the Big 12 | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Utah | 49.3% | 90.7% |
| Texas Tech | 22.0% | 41.4% |
| BYU | 8.3% | 27.4% |
| Houston | 8.3% | 29.8% |
| Arizona | 5.0% | 13.4% |
| Oklahoma State | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Baylor | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| West Virginia | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UCF | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arizona State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big 12 title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will West Virginia make the College Football Playoff?
- West Virginia is 5-3 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 6.0 projected wins. It wins the Big 12 in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does West Virginia need to make the playoff?
- West Virginia needs help even if it wins out. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 4.0%. The game that decides the most is at Utah in week 13: 0.2% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 68.8% of seasons.
- Who should West Virginia fans root for in week 11?
- Baylor over BYU, worth 0.01% in playoff odds, then Houston over Colorado.
- What is West Virginia's toughest game left?
- At Utah in week 13, with a 10.4% chance to win.
- How are West Virginia's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in West Virginia's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.