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Oklahoma State playoff odds
Oklahoma State makes the College Football Playoff in 4.4% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Oklahoma State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Oklahoma State is 6-3 (4-2 in the Big 12) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 4.4% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 1.2%), wins the Big 12 in 4.4% and wins the national title in 0.05%, with 8.0 projected wins.
That is the 25th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Oklahoma State fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Oklahoma State's playoff odds the most.
- Colorado over Houston, worth 3.00%
- Utah over Arizona, worth 0.88%
- UCF over Arizona State, worth 0.58%
- Baylor over BYU, worth 0.52%
- Cincinnati over Iowa State, worth 0.43%
- West Virginia over Kansas, worth 0.29%
What Oklahoma State needs
Oklahoma State needs help even if it wins out. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 15.0%. The game that decides the most is against Texas Tech in week 11: 9.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Big 12 title game in 10.5% of seasons. Winning it puts Oklahoma State at 100.0% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Texas Tech | 48.2% | 9.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Arizona State | 71.1% | 6.2% | 0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Kansas | 77.4% | 5.7% | 0.1% |
Oklahoma State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | 29.1% | 15.0% |
| 8-4 | 43.3% | 0.1% |
| 7-5 | 22.9% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 4.7% | <0.1% |
Oklahoma State's results
week 1, lost to Tulsa 10-24; week 2, beat Oregon 39-31; week 3, beat Murray State 59-0; week 4, beat West Virginia 41-24; week 6, beat UCF 42-28; week 7, lost to Houston 32-35; week 8, beat Colorado 57-24; week 9, lost to Iowa State 49-51; week 10, beat Kansas State 66-28.
The Big 12 race
| Team | Wins the Big 12 | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Utah | 49.3% | 90.7% |
| Texas Tech | 22.0% | 41.4% |
| BYU | 8.3% | 27.4% |
| Houston | 8.3% | 29.8% |
| Arizona | 5.0% | 13.4% |
| Oklahoma State | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Baylor | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| West Virginia | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UCF | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arizona State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big 12 title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Oklahoma State make the College Football Playoff?
- Oklahoma State is 6-3 and makes the playoff in 4.4% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 8.0 projected wins. It wins the Big 12 in 4.4% and the national title in 0.05%.
- What does Oklahoma State need to make the playoff?
- Oklahoma State needs help even if it wins out. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 15.0%. The game that decides the most is against Texas Tech in week 11: 9.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Big 12 title game in 10.5% of seasons. Winning it puts Oklahoma State at 100.0% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should Oklahoma State fans root for in week 11?
- Colorado over Houston, worth 3.00% in playoff odds, then Utah over Arizona.
- What is Oklahoma State's toughest game left?
- Hosting Texas Tech in week 11, with a 48.2% chance to win.
- How are Oklahoma State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Oklahoma State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.