simulating…
Tulsa playoff odds
Tulsa makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
Playoff seed
Your team's games
Simulating a season…
Standings
Tulsa playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Tulsa is 5-4 (2-3 in the American Athletic) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the American Athletic in 0.2% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 7.2 projected wins.
That is the 125th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Tulsa fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Tulsa's playoff odds.
What Tulsa needs
Even at 8-4, Tulsa makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the American Athletic title game in 0.5% of seasons. Winning it puts Tulsa at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Florida Atlantic | 73.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Charlotte | 93.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at UTSA | 50.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Tulsa's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | 36.1% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 45.7% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 16.8% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 1.5% | <0.1% |
Tulsa's results
week 1, beat Oklahoma State 24-10; week 2, beat Sam Houston 23-17; week 3, beat East Texas A&M 42-0; week 4, lost to Arkansas 6-34; week 5, lost to North Texas 44-45; week 6, lost to Navy 26-34; week 7, beat Rice 38-17; week 8, lost to Army 35-38; week 10, beat Tulane 60-10.
The American Athletic race
| Team | Wins the American Athletic | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| North Texas | 51.7% | 1.1% |
| Memphis | 24.9% | 0.1% |
| UTSA | 14.5% | 0.3% |
| Army | 6.8% | <0.1% |
| East Carolina | 1.2% | <0.1% |
| Florida Atlantic | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| Tulsa | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| UAB | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| South Florida | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Tulane | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The American Athletic title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Tulsa make the College Football Playoff?
- Tulsa is 5-4 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 7.2 projected wins. It wins the American Athletic in 0.2% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Tulsa need to make the playoff?
- Even at 8-4, Tulsa makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the American Athletic title game in 0.5% of seasons. Winning it puts Tulsa at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should Tulsa fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Tulsa's playoff odds.
- What is Tulsa's toughest game left?
- At UTSA in week 13, with a 50.0% chance to win.
- How are Tulsa's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Tulsa's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.