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North Texas playoff odds
North Texas makes the College Football Playoff in 1.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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North Texas playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
North Texas is 7-2 (5-0 in the American Athletic) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 1.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 1.9%), wins the American Athletic in 51.7% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 9.2 projected wins.
That is the 35th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who North Texas fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move North Texas's playoff odds the most.
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 3.43%
- UNLV over New Mexico, worth 1.51%
- Texas State over Fresno State, worth 0.57%
- Indiana over USC, worth 0.45%
- Michigan over Oregon, worth 0.25%
- Akron over Western Michigan, worth 0.23%
What North Texas needs
North Texas needs help even if it wins out. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 2.7%. The game that decides the most is at UTSA in week 11: 1.9% with a win, 0.1% with a loss. It reaches the American Athletic title game in 89.4% of seasons. Winning it puts North Texas at 2.1% and losing it at 0.2%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at UTSA | 58.6% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Tulane | 73.7% | 1.5% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs UAB | 89.7% | 1.3% | <0.1% |
North Texas's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | 40.9% | 2.7% |
| 9-3 | 42.1% | 0.1% |
| 8-4 | 15.3% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 1.8% | <0.1% |
North Texas's results
week 1, lost to Indiana 16-52; week 2, beat UNLV 44-6; week 3, lost to Texas State 35-49; week 4, beat Houston Christian 63-14; week 5, beat Tulsa 45-44; week 6, beat Charlotte 50-10; week 8, beat Navy 49-39; week 9, beat Florida Atlantic 48-41; week 10, beat Rice 52-23.
The American Athletic race
| Team | Wins the American Athletic | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| North Texas | 51.7% | 1.1% |
| Memphis | 24.9% | 0.1% |
| UTSA | 14.5% | 0.3% |
| Army | 6.8% | <0.1% |
| East Carolina | 1.2% | <0.1% |
| Florida Atlantic | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| Tulsa | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| UAB | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| South Florida | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Tulane | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The American Athletic title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will North Texas make the College Football Playoff?
- North Texas is 7-2 and makes the playoff in 1.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 9.2 projected wins. It wins the American Athletic in 51.7% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does North Texas need to make the playoff?
- North Texas needs help even if it wins out. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 2.7%. The game that decides the most is at UTSA in week 11: 1.9% with a win, 0.1% with a loss. It reaches the American Athletic title game in 89.4% of seasons. Winning it puts North Texas at 2.1% and losing it at 0.2%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should North Texas fans root for in week 11?
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 3.43% in playoff odds, then UNLV over New Mexico.
- What is North Texas's toughest game left?
- At UTSA in week 11, with a 58.6% chance to win.
- How are North Texas's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in North Texas's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.