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Michigan playoff odds
Michigan makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Michigan playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Michigan is 5-4 (2-4 in the Big Ten) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 0.2%), wins the Big Ten in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 5.8 projected wins.
That is the 96th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Michigan fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Michigan's playoff odds.
What Michigan needs
Even at 8-4, Michigan makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 61.4% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Oregon | 20.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs UCLA | 47.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Ohio State | 12.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Michigan's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | 1.9% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 15.1% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 44.4% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 38.6% | <0.1% |
Michigan's results
week 1, beat Western Michigan 13-12; week 2, beat Oklahoma 17-10; week 3, beat UTEP 52-17; week 4, lost to Iowa 19-20; week 5, lost to Minnesota 14-20; week 7, beat Penn State 21-18; week 8, lost to Indiana 6-13; week 9, beat Rutgers 28-21; week 10, lost to Michigan State 6-15.
The Big Ten race
| Team | Wins the Big Ten | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 42.4% | 62.9% |
| UCLA | 20.8% | 67.0% |
| Oregon | 14.2% | 24.6% |
| Ohio State | 12.8% | 29.4% |
| USC | 6.0% | 13.0% |
| Iowa | 1.7% | 9.3% |
| Wisconsin | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Illinois | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Northwestern | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Minnesota | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big Ten title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Michigan make the College Football Playoff?
- Michigan is 5-4 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 5.8 projected wins. It wins the Big Ten in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Michigan need to make the playoff?
- Even at 8-4, Michigan makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 61.4% of seasons.
- Who should Michigan fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Michigan's playoff odds.
- What is Michigan's toughest game left?
- At Ohio State in week 13, with a 12.4% chance to win.
- How are Michigan's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Michigan's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.