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UTEP playoff odds
UTEP makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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UTEP playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
UTEP is 1-7 (0-4 in the Mountain West) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Mountain West in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 1.9 projected wins.
That is the 129th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who UTEP fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on UTEP's playoff odds.
What UTEP needs
Even at 5-7, UTEP makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 | vs Hawai'i | 21.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 11 | vs Wyoming | 28.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Air Force | 6.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Northern Illinois | 35.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
UTEP's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 4-8 | 4.3% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 18.5% | <0.1% |
| 2-10 | 39.4% | <0.1% |
| 1-11 | 37.4% | <0.1% |
UTEP's results
week 1, lost to Oklahoma 0-51; week 2, beat Texas Southern 51-10; week 3, lost to Michigan 17-52; week 4, lost to Oregon State 7-33; week 5, lost to New Mexico 7-61; week 6, lost to Nevada 13-30; week 7, lost to San José State 11-24; week 9, lost to North Dakota State 7-31.
The Mountain West race
| Team | Wins the Mountain West | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 70.1% | 10.9% |
| North Dakota State | 16.3% | <0.1% |
| UNLV | 8.3% | <0.1% |
| Air Force | 2.9% | <0.1% |
| Wyoming | 2.1% | <0.1% |
| San José State | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Nevada | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Hawai'i | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Northern Illinois | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UTEP | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mountain West title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will UTEP make the College Football Playoff?
- UTEP is 1-7 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 1.9 projected wins. It wins the Mountain West in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does UTEP need to make the playoff?
- Even at 5-7, UTEP makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
- Who should UTEP fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on UTEP's playoff odds.
- What is UTEP's toughest game left?
- At Air Force in week 12, with a 6.2% chance to win.
- How are UTEP's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in UTEP's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.