The Mountain West title race

Updated November 8, after week 9, from 2.5 million simulated seasons.

1. New Mexico70.1%
2. North Dakota State16.3%
3. UNLV8.3%
4. Air Force2.9%
5. Wyoming2.1%
6. Everyone else0.3%

Team	Conf	Overall	Title game	Wins Mountain West	Playoff
New Mexico	5-0	8-1	92.8%	70.1%	10.9%
North Dakota State	4-2	7-2	55.2%	16.3%	<0.1%
UNLV	3-1	5-3	26.8%	8.3%	<0.1%
Air Force	3-2	7-2	8.6%	2.9%	<0.1%
Wyoming	4-1	5-3	14.3%	2.1%	<0.1%
San José State	3-3	5-5	2.1%	0.3%	<0.1%
Nevada	2-3	3-6	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Hawai'iOut	1-4	2-6	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
Northern IllinoisOut	0-5	0-9	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
UTEPOut	0-4	1-7	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%

Clinching scenarios

• New MexicoClinches this week with San José State beating Air Force and a win over UNLV and UTEP beating Wyoming and Hawai'i beating North Dakota State. Clinches by winning out.
• UNLVClinches by winning out.
• WyomingClinches by winning out.

Need help even if they win out: North Dakota State, Air Force, San José State.

Out of the race: Hawai'i, Northern Illinois, UTEP.

Likeliest title games

1. 51.2% of seasonsNew MexicoUNM73%27%North Dakota StateNDSU
2. 22.6% of seasonsNew MexicoUNM74%26%UNLVUNLV
3. 11.1% of seasonsNew MexicoUNM89%11%WyomingWYO
4. 5.8% of seasonsNew MexicoUNM75%25%Air ForceAFA
5. 2.1% of seasonsNew MexicoUNM88%12%San José StateSJSU
6. 2.0% of seasonsNorth Dakota StateNDSU52%48%UNLVUNLV

The games that decide the race

1. 1North Dakota StateatHawai'iWeek 11Sat 11:00 PM ET, CW0.24Most at stakeNorth Dakota State53.8UNLV25.3Wyoming14.4
2. 2North Dakota StateatSan José StateWeek 13Fri 3:30 PM ET, CBSSN0.22Most at stakeNorth Dakota State55.8UNLV20.5Wyoming13.8
3. 3UNLVatNew MexicoWeek 11Sat 7:30 PM ET, CW0.16Most at stakeUNLV50.1New Mexico26.6North Dakota State25.0
4. 4WyomingatUNLVWeek 10Sat 10:30 PM ET, CBSSN0.16Most at stakeWyoming45.4UNLV32.3North Dakota State6.1
5. 5UNLVatSan José StateWeek 12Sat 7:00 PM ET, CBSSN0.14Most at stakeUNLV31.0North Dakota State13.7San José State6.0
6. 6Air ForceatNew MexicoWeek 13Fri 4:30 PM ET, CW0.13Most at stakeAir Force36.4New Mexico26.1UNLV9.6
7. 7NevadaatUNLVWeek 13Sat 9:00 PM ET, CBSSN0.11Most at stakeUNLV26.4North Dakota State17.8Wyoming4.5
8. 8New MexicoatWyomingWeek 12Fri 9:00 PM ET, FS10.10Most at stakeWyoming42.0New Mexico30.8North Dakota State13.0

How the Mountain West breaks ties

The top two teams in the conference standings meet in the title game. It is played at the higher seed's stadium.

Ties are broken in this order:

1. Head-to-head results among the tied teams
2. Record against all common conference opponents
3. Record against common conference opponents, starting with the highest-placed and working down the standings
4. The conference's ranking metric

Questions

Who is favored to win the Mountain West in 2026?

New Mexico wins the Mountain West in 70.1% of simulated seasons, ahead of North Dakota State (16.3%) and UNLV (8.3%).

Who will play in the Mountain West championship game?

The likeliest pairing is New Mexico against North Dakota State, in 51.2% of seasons. New Mexico reaches the game in 92.8% and North Dakota State in 55.2%.

How many Mountain West teams will make the College Football Playoff?

0.1 on average across the simulated seasons. New Mexico makes it in 10.9%, North Dakota State makes it in <0.1%, Air Force makes it in <0.1%.

Other conferences: ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Ten Conference USA Mid-American Pac-12 SEC Sun Belt

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