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Wyoming playoff odds
Wyoming makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Wyoming playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Wyoming is 5-3 (4-1 in the Mountain West) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Mountain West in 2.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 6.5 projected wins.
That is the 138th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Wyoming fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Wyoming's playoff odds.
What Wyoming needs
Even at 9-3, Wyoming makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the Mountain West title game in 14.3% of seasons. Winning it puts Wyoming at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 86.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 | at UNLV | 21.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 11 | at UTEP | 71.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs New Mexico | 12.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs UConn | 39.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Wyoming's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | 1.5% | <0.1% |
| 8-4 | 11.3% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 33.2% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 40.1% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 13.9% | <0.1% |
Wyoming's results
week 1, lost to Colorado State 13-35; week 2, beat Northern Colorado 21-13; week 3, lost to Central Michigan 10-24; week 4, beat Hawai'i 27-10; week 5, lost to North Dakota State 0-28; week 6, beat San José State 16-13; week 7, beat Northern Illinois 41-23; week 8, beat Air Force 28-14.
The Mountain West race
| Team | Wins the Mountain West | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 70.1% | 10.9% |
| North Dakota State | 16.3% | <0.1% |
| UNLV | 8.3% | <0.1% |
| Air Force | 2.9% | <0.1% |
| Wyoming | 2.1% | <0.1% |
| San José State | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Nevada | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Hawai'i | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Northern Illinois | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UTEP | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mountain West title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Wyoming make the College Football Playoff?
- Wyoming is 5-3 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 6.5 projected wins. It wins the Mountain West in 2.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Wyoming need to make the playoff?
- Even at 9-3, Wyoming makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the Mountain West title game in 14.3% of seasons. Winning it puts Wyoming at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 86.1% of seasons.
- Who should Wyoming fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Wyoming's playoff odds.
- What is Wyoming's toughest game left?
- Hosting New Mexico in week 12, with a 12.8% chance to win.
- How are Wyoming's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Wyoming's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.