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Colorado State playoff odds
Colorado State makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Colorado State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Colorado State is 3-6 (1-4 in the Pac-12) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Pac-12 in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 4.4 projected wins.
That is the 76th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Colorado State fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Colorado State's playoff odds.
What Colorado State needs
Even at 6-6, Colorado State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 5.0% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Washington State | 33.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Fresno State | 13.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs TBD | 91.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Colorado State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | 5.0% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 34.1% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 56.0% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 4.9% | <0.1% |
Colorado State's results
week 1, beat Wyoming 35-13; week 2, beat Southern Utah 58-24; week 3, lost to BYU 23-41; week 4, lost to UTSA 45-59; week 5, lost to Oregon State 26-56; week 7, lost to Texas State 27-66; week 8, beat San Diego State 56-49; week 9, lost to Utah State 14-31; week 10, lost to Boise State 38-64.
The Pac-12 race
| Team | Wins the Pac-12 | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Boise State | 71.6% | 86.0% |
| Oregon State | 16.6% | 1.5% |
| Fresno State | 5.9% | <0.1% |
| Texas State | 4.4% | <0.1% |
| Utah State | 0.9% | <0.1% |
| San Diego State | 0.7% | <0.1% |
| Colorado State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Washington State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Pac-12 title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Colorado State make the College Football Playoff?
- Colorado State is 3-6 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 4.4 projected wins. It wins the Pac-12 in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Colorado State need to make the playoff?
- Even at 6-6, Colorado State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 5.0% of seasons.
- Who should Colorado State fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Colorado State's playoff odds.
- What is Colorado State's toughest game left?
- At Fresno State in week 12, with a 13.0% chance to win.
- How are Colorado State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Colorado State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.