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Utah State playoff odds
Utah State makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Utah State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Utah State is 3-5 (2-2 in the Pac-12) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Pac-12 in 0.9% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 5.1 projected wins.
That is the 130th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Utah State fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Utah State's playoff odds.
What Utah State needs
Even at 7-5, Utah State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the Pac-12 title game in 5.1% of seasons. Winning it puts Utah State at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 33.0% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 | vs Fresno State | 39.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 11 | at San Diego State | 53.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Oregon State | 22.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs TBD | 97.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Utah State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | 6.2% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 26.8% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 41.7% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 24.5% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 0.8% | <0.1% |
Utah State's results
week 1, lost to Idaho State 17-29; week 2, lost to Washington 14-16; week 3, lost to Utah 0-33; week 4, beat Troy 21-10; week 5, lost to Boise State 18-37; week 6, beat Washington State 17-16; week 8, lost to Texas State 17-20; week 9, beat Colorado State 31-14.
The Pac-12 race
| Team | Wins the Pac-12 | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Boise State | 71.6% | 86.0% |
| Oregon State | 16.6% | 1.5% |
| Fresno State | 5.9% | <0.1% |
| Texas State | 4.4% | <0.1% |
| Utah State | 0.9% | <0.1% |
| San Diego State | 0.7% | <0.1% |
| Colorado State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Washington State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Pac-12 title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Utah State make the College Football Playoff?
- Utah State is 3-5 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 5.1 projected wins. It wins the Pac-12 in 0.9% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Utah State need to make the playoff?
- Even at 7-5, Utah State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the Pac-12 title game in 5.1% of seasons. Winning it puts Utah State at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 33.0% of seasons.
- Who should Utah State fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Utah State's playoff odds.
- What is Utah State's toughest game left?
- At Oregon State in week 12, with a 22.1% chance to win.
- How are Utah State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Utah State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.