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Texas State playoff odds
Texas State makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Texas State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Texas State is 4-4 (2-2 in the Pac-12) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Pac-12 in 4.4% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 5.7 projected wins.
That is the 53rd-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Texas State fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Texas State's playoff odds the most.
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 0.01%
- UNLV over New Mexico, worth <0.01%
- South Florida over Memphis, worth <0.01%
- UTSA over North Texas, worth <0.01%
What Texas State needs
Even at 7-4, Texas State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at Oregon State in week 10: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Pac-12 title game in 18.5% of seasons. Winning it puts Texas State at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 58.0% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 | at Oregon State | 34.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 11 | vs Fresno State | 53.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Washington State | 78.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Texas State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 7-4 | 16.6% | <0.1% |
| 6-5 | 41.4% | <0.1% |
| 5-6 | 33.8% | <0.1% |
| 4-7 | 8.2% | <0.1% |
Texas State's results
week 1, lost to Texas 7-59; week 2, lost to UTSA 26-31; week 3, beat North Texas 49-35; week 4, beat Incarnate Word 63-10; week 5, lost to San Diego State 29-31; week 7, beat Colorado State 66-27; week 8, beat Utah State 20-17; week 9, lost to Boise State 45-46.
The Pac-12 race
| Team | Wins the Pac-12 | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Boise State | 71.6% | 86.0% |
| Oregon State | 16.6% | 1.5% |
| Fresno State | 5.9% | <0.1% |
| Texas State | 4.4% | <0.1% |
| Utah State | 0.9% | <0.1% |
| San Diego State | 0.7% | <0.1% |
| Colorado State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Washington State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Pac-12 title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Texas State make the College Football Playoff?
- Texas State is 4-4 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 5.7 projected wins. It wins the Pac-12 in 4.4% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Texas State need to make the playoff?
- Even at 7-4, Texas State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at Oregon State in week 10: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Pac-12 title game in 18.5% of seasons. Winning it puts Texas State at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 58.0% of seasons.
- Who should Texas State fans root for in week 11?
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 0.01% in playoff odds, then UNLV over New Mexico.
- What is Texas State's toughest game left?
- At Oregon State in week 10, with a 34.1% chance to win.
- How are Texas State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Texas State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.