CFB Rooting Guide
Methodology

The Pac-12 title race

Updated November 8, after week 9, from 2.5 million simulated seasons.

Who wins the Pac-12
  1. Boise State71.6%
  2. Oregon State16.6%
  3. Fresno State5.9%
  4. Texas State4.4%
  5. Everyone else1.6%
TeamConfOverallTitle gameWins Pac-12Playoff
Boise State5-08-198.9%71.6%86.0%
Oregon State3-15-347.1%16.6%1.5%
Fresno State2-25-323.6%5.9%<0.1%
Texas State2-24-418.5%4.4%<0.1%
Utah State2-23-55.1%0.9%<0.1%
San Diego State3-24-56.9%0.7%<0.1%
Colorado StateOut1-43-60.0%0.0%<0.1%
Washington StateOut0-51-80.0%0.0%<0.1%

Clinching scenarios

  • Boise StateClinches this week with a win over Oregon State. Clinches by winning out.
  • Oregon StateClinches by winning out.

Need help even if they win out: Fresno State, Texas State, Utah State, San Diego State.

Out of the race: Colorado State, Washington State.

Likeliest title games

  1. 45.9% of seasonsBoise StateBOIS66%34%Oregon StateORST
  2. 23.6% of seasonsBoise StateBOIS75%25%Fresno StateFRES
  3. 18.5% of seasonsBoise StateBOIS76%24%Texas StateTXST
  4. 5.8% of seasonsBoise StateBOIS91%9%San Diego StateSDSU
  5. 5.0% of seasonsBoise StateBOIS83%17%Utah StateUSU
  6. 1.1% of seasonsOregon StateORST82%18%San Diego StateSDSU

The games that decide the race

  1. 1Texas StateatOregon StateWeek 100.29Most at stakeOregon State62.3Texas State49.3San Diego State8.5
  2. 2Fresno StateatTexas StateWeek 110.27Most at stakeFresno State49.8Texas State33.7Oregon State21.2
  3. 3Fresno StateatUtah StateWeek 100.16Most at stakeFresno State34.0Oregon State17.0Utah State12.6
  4. 4Utah StateatOregon StateWeek 120.14Most at stakeOregon State41.8Utah State22.9Texas State7.7
  5. 5Oregon StateatBoise StateWeek 110.13Most at stakeOregon State33.3Fresno State18.9Texas State6.5
  6. 6Utah StateatSan Diego StateWeek 110.10Most at stakeSan Diego State14.3Utah State9.4Oregon State6.2
  7. 7San Diego StateatBoise StateWeek 120.06Most at stakeSan Diego State39.5Boise State17.5Fresno State15.2
  8. 8Washington StateatTexas StateWeek 120.05Most at stakeTexas State16.1San Diego State6.6Oregon State4.1

How the Pac-12 breaks ties

The top two teams in the conference standings meet in the title game. It is played at the higher seed's stadium.

Two tied teams:

  1. Head-to-head results among the tied teams
  2. Record against common conference opponents, starting with the highest-placed and working down the standings
  3. Record against all common conference opponents
  4. The conference's ranking metric

Three or more:

  1. Head-to-head results among the tied teams
  2. Record against all common conference opponents
  3. Record against common conference opponents, starting with the highest-placed and working down the standings
  4. Combined conference winning percentage of conference opponents
  5. The conference's ranking metric

Questions

Who is favored to win the Pac-12 in 2026?
Boise State wins the Pac-12 in 71.6% of simulated seasons, ahead of Oregon State (16.6%) and Fresno State (5.9%).
Who will play in the Pac-12 championship game?
The likeliest pairing is Boise State against Oregon State, in 45.9% of seasons. Boise State reaches the game in 98.9% and Oregon State in 47.1%.
How many Pac-12 teams will make the College Football Playoff?
0.9 on average across the simulated seasons. Boise State makes it in 86.0%, Oregon State makes it in 1.5%, Fresno State makes it in <0.1%.

Other conferences: ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Ten Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West SEC Sun Belt

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