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Oregon State playoff odds
Oregon State makes the College Football Playoff in 1.5% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Oregon State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Oregon State is 5-3 (3-1 in the Pac-12) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 1.5% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 0.1%), wins the Pac-12 in 16.6% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 6.7 projected wins.
That is the 32nd-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Oregon State fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Oregon State's playoff odds the most.
- UNLV over New Mexico, worth 1.59%
- Texas Tech over Oklahoma State, worth 0.54%
- Houston over Colorado, worth 0.44%
- Fresno State over Texas State, worth 0.36%
- UTSA over North Texas, worth 0.22%
- South Florida over Memphis, worth 0.16%
What Oregon State needs
Oregon State needs help even if it wins out. At 8-3 it makes the playoff in 9.5%. The game that decides the most is at Boise State in week 11: 5.6% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Pac-12 title game in 47.1% of seasons. Winning it puts Oregon State at 8.8% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 92.9% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 | vs Texas State | 65.9% | 2.2% | <0.1% |
| Week 11 | at Boise State | 26.0% | 5.6% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Utah State | 77.9% | 1.9% | <0.1% |
Oregon State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8-3 | 15.3% | 9.5% |
| 7-4 | 46.3% | <0.1% |
| 6-5 | 31.3% | <0.1% |
| 5-6 | 7.1% | <0.1% |
Oregon State's results
week 1, lost to Houston 20-33; week 2, lost to Texas Tech 24-35; week 3, beat Montana 52-17; week 4, beat UTEP 33-7; week 5, beat Colorado State 56-26; week 6, beat San Diego State 66-14; week 7, beat Washington State 48-30; week 9, lost to Fresno State 22-38.
The Pac-12 race
| Team | Wins the Pac-12 | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Boise State | 71.6% | 86.0% |
| Oregon State | 16.6% | 1.5% |
| Fresno State | 5.9% | <0.1% |
| Texas State | 4.4% | <0.1% |
| Utah State | 0.9% | <0.1% |
| San Diego State | 0.7% | <0.1% |
| Colorado State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Washington State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Pac-12 title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Oregon State make the College Football Playoff?
- Oregon State is 5-3 and makes the playoff in 1.5% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 6.7 projected wins. It wins the Pac-12 in 16.6% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Oregon State need to make the playoff?
- Oregon State needs help even if it wins out. At 8-3 it makes the playoff in 9.5%. The game that decides the most is at Boise State in week 11: 5.6% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Pac-12 title game in 47.1% of seasons. Winning it puts Oregon State at 8.8% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 92.9% of seasons.
- Who should Oregon State fans root for in week 11?
- UNLV over New Mexico, worth 1.59% in playoff odds, then Texas Tech over Oklahoma State.
- What is Oregon State's toughest game left?
- At Boise State in week 11, with a 26.0% chance to win.
- How are Oregon State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Oregon State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.