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Texas Tech playoff odds
Texas Tech makes the College Football Playoff in 41.4% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Texas Tech playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Texas Tech is 7-1 (4-1 in the Big 12) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 41.4% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 41.9%), wins the Big 12 in 22.0%, earns a top-four seed and first-round bye in 8.6% and wins the national title in 1.29%, with 9.7 projected wins.
That is the 12th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 15.
Who Texas Tech fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Texas Tech's playoff odds the most.
- Arizona over Utah, worth 4.45%
- Baylor over BYU, worth 4.22%
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 3.64%
- Cincinnati over Iowa State, worth 3.27%
- Texas A&M over Tennessee, worth 3.00%
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 2.82%
What Texas Tech needs
Winning out puts Texas Tech at 99.3%. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 46.5%. The game that decides the most is at Oklahoma State in week 11: 64.0% with a win, 17.2% with a loss. It reaches the Big 12 title game in 43.5% of seasons. Winning it puts Texas Tech at 100.0% and losing it at 64.7%; missing it leaves 9.7%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 | vs West Virginia | 87.4% | 46.1% | 9.2% |
| Week 11 | at Oklahoma State | 51.8% | 64.0% | 17.2% |
| Week 12 | at Baylor | 57.1% | 60.6% | 15.9% |
| Week 13 | vs TCU | 77.5% | 50.4% | 10.5% |
Texas Tech's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 11-1 | 23.2% | 99.3% |
| 10-2 | 38.8% | 46.5% |
| 9-3 | 27.6% | 1.1% |
| 8-4 | 9.1% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 1.2% | <0.1% |
Texas Tech's results
week 1, beat Abilene Christian 33-10; week 2, beat Oregon State 35-24; week 3, beat Houston 28-26; week 4, beat Sam Houston 49-14; week 5, beat Colorado 29-7; week 7, beat Arizona State 53-25; week 8, lost to Cincinnati 24-37; week 9, beat Arizona 34-26.
The Big 12 race
| Team | Wins the Big 12 | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Utah | 49.3% | 90.7% |
| Texas Tech | 22.0% | 41.4% |
| BYU | 8.3% | 27.4% |
| Houston | 8.3% | 29.8% |
| Arizona | 5.0% | 13.4% |
| Oklahoma State | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Baylor | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| West Virginia | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UCF | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arizona State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big 12 title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Texas Tech make the College Football Playoff?
- Texas Tech is 7-1 and makes the playoff in 41.4% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 9.7 projected wins. It wins the Big 12 in 22.0% and the national title in 1.29%.
- What does Texas Tech need to make the playoff?
- Winning out puts Texas Tech at 99.3%. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 46.5%. The game that decides the most is at Oklahoma State in week 11: 64.0% with a win, 17.2% with a loss. It reaches the Big 12 title game in 43.5% of seasons. Winning it puts Texas Tech at 100.0% and losing it at 64.7%; missing it leaves 9.7%.
- Who should Texas Tech fans root for in week 11?
- Arizona over Utah, worth 4.45% in playoff odds, then Baylor over BYU.
- What is Texas Tech's toughest game left?
- At Oklahoma State in week 11, with a 51.8% chance to win.
- How are Texas Tech's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Texas Tech's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.