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Ole Miss playoff odds
Ole Miss makes the College Football Playoff in 32.7% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Ole Miss playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Ole Miss is 6-3 (4-3 in the SEC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 32.7% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 62.4%), wins the SEC in 0.7%, earns a top-four seed and first-round bye in 0.3% and wins the national title in 1.09%, with 8.4 projected wins.
That is the 15th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 10.
Who Ole Miss fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Ole Miss's playoff odds the most.
- Florida over Kentucky, worth 9.70%
- Boston College over Notre Dame, worth 6.02%
- Vanderbilt over Alabama, worth 5.52%
- Louisville over North Carolina, worth 4.41%
- Texas A&M over Tennessee, worth 3.97%
- Baylor over BYU, worth 3.92%
What Ole Miss needs
Ole Miss has to win out. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 67.2%, at 8-4 in 2.3%. The game that decides the most is at Oklahoma in week 11: 57.2% with a win, 1.9% with a loss. It reaches the SEC title game in 2.2% of seasons. Winning it puts Ole Miss at 100.0% and losing it at 79.3%; missing it leaves 31.5%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Oklahoma | 55.7% | 57.2% | 1.9% |
| Week 12 | vs Wofford | 100.0% | 32.7% | 0.3% |
| Week 13 | vs Mississippi State | 82.8% | 39.3% | 1.0% |
Ole Miss's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | 47.2% | 67.2% |
| 8-4 | 44.1% | 2.3% |
| 7-5 | 8.7% | <0.1% |
Ole Miss's results
week 1, beat Louisville 41-38; week 2, beat Charlotte 41-9; week 3, beat LSU 32-24; week 4, lost to Florida 28-52; week 6, beat Vanderbilt 52-17; week 7, beat Missouri 31-3; week 8, lost to Texas 27-34; week 9, beat Auburn 45-15; week 10, lost to Georgia 7-42.
The SEC race
| Team | Wins the SEC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 54.7% | 97.4% |
| Alabama | 27.4% | 97.8% |
| Texas | 10.2% | 76.8% |
| Tennessee | 5.5% | 43.0% |
| Kentucky | 1.0% | 39.6% |
| Ole Miss | 0.7% | 32.7% |
| LSU | 0.3% | 36.5% |
| Oklahoma | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| South Carolina | 0.1% | 8.3% |
| Missouri | <0.1% | 2.6% |
The SEC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff?
- Ole Miss is 6-3 and makes the playoff in 32.7% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 8.4 projected wins. It wins the SEC in 0.7% and the national title in 1.09%.
- What does Ole Miss need to make the playoff?
- Ole Miss has to win out. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 67.2%, at 8-4 in 2.3%. The game that decides the most is at Oklahoma in week 11: 57.2% with a win, 1.9% with a loss. It reaches the SEC title game in 2.2% of seasons. Winning it puts Ole Miss at 100.0% and losing it at 79.3%; missing it leaves 31.5%.
- Who should Ole Miss fans root for in week 11?
- Florida over Kentucky, worth 9.70% in playoff odds, then Boston College over Notre Dame.
- What is Ole Miss's toughest game left?
- At Oklahoma in week 11, with a 55.7% chance to win.
- How are Ole Miss's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Ole Miss's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.