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Vanderbilt playoff odds
Vanderbilt makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Vanderbilt playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Vanderbilt is 4-5 (1-5 in the SEC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the SEC in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 4.4 projected wins.
That is the 131st-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Vanderbilt fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Vanderbilt's playoff odds.
What Vanderbilt needs
Even at 7-5, Vanderbilt makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 6.8% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Alabama | 7.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Florida | 18.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Tennessee | 17.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Vanderbilt's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 6.3% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 30.2% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 62.9% | <0.1% |
Vanderbilt's results
week 1, beat Austin Peay 28-9; week 2, beat Delaware 35-26; week 3, beat NC State 35-31; week 4, lost to Auburn 15-21; week 5, lost to Georgia 14-38; week 6, lost to Ole Miss 17-52; week 7, lost to Arkansas 21-31; week 8, lost to Kentucky 17-34; week 10, beat Mississippi State 25-23.
The SEC race
| Team | Wins the SEC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 54.7% | 97.4% |
| Alabama | 27.4% | 97.8% |
| Texas | 10.2% | 76.8% |
| Tennessee | 5.5% | 43.0% |
| Kentucky | 1.0% | 39.6% |
| Ole Miss | 0.7% | 32.7% |
| LSU | 0.3% | 36.5% |
| Oklahoma | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| South Carolina | 0.1% | 8.3% |
| Missouri | <0.1% | 2.6% |
The SEC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Vanderbilt make the College Football Playoff?
- Vanderbilt is 4-5 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 4.4 projected wins. It wins the SEC in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Vanderbilt need to make the playoff?
- Even at 7-5, Vanderbilt makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 6.8% of seasons.
- Who should Vanderbilt fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Vanderbilt's playoff odds.
- What is Vanderbilt's toughest game left?
- Hosting Alabama in week 11, with a 7.8% chance to win.
- How are Vanderbilt's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Vanderbilt's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.