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Arkansas playoff odds
Arkansas makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Arkansas playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Arkansas is 3-6 (1-5 in the SEC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the SEC in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 3.4 projected wins.
That is the 63rd-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Arkansas fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Arkansas's playoff odds.
What Arkansas needs
Even at 6-6, Arkansas makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs South Carolina | 26.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Texas | 4.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs LSU | 11.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Arkansas's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 5-7 | 5.2% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 31.1% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 63.4% | <0.1% |
Arkansas's results
week 1, beat North Alabama 31-14; week 2, lost to Utah 10-43; week 3, lost to Georgia 17-45; week 4, beat Tulsa 34-6; week 5, lost to Texas A&M 7-34; week 6, lost to Tennessee 17-24; week 7, beat Vanderbilt 31-21; week 9, lost to Missouri 10-34; week 10, lost to Auburn 23-26.
The SEC race
| Team | Wins the SEC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 54.7% | 97.4% |
| Alabama | 27.4% | 97.8% |
| Texas | 10.2% | 76.8% |
| Tennessee | 5.5% | 43.0% |
| Kentucky | 1.0% | 39.6% |
| Ole Miss | 0.7% | 32.7% |
| LSU | 0.3% | 36.5% |
| Oklahoma | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| South Carolina | 0.1% | 8.3% |
| Missouri | <0.1% | 2.6% |
The SEC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Arkansas make the College Football Playoff?
- Arkansas is 3-6 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 3.4 projected wins. It wins the SEC in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Arkansas need to make the playoff?
- Even at 6-6, Arkansas makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
- Who should Arkansas fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Arkansas's playoff odds.
- What is Arkansas's toughest game left?
- At Texas in week 12, with a 4.9% chance to win.
- How are Arkansas's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Arkansas's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.