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Kentucky playoff odds
Kentucky makes the College Football Playoff in 39.6% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Kentucky playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Kentucky is 7-2 (5-2 in the SEC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 39.6% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 44.4%), wins the SEC in 1.0%, earns a top-four seed and first-round bye in 5.0% and wins the national title in 0.32%, with 8.4 projected wins.
That is the 13th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 3.
Who Kentucky fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Kentucky's playoff odds the most.
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 4.73%
- Boston College over Notre Dame, worth 3.72%
- South Carolina over Arkansas, worth 3.23%
- Texas A&M over Tennessee, worth 2.94%
- SMU over Wake Forest, worth 2.66%
- LSU over Texas, worth 2.62%
What Kentucky needs
Kentucky can afford one loss. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 78.5%, at 8-4 in 5.4%. The game that decides the most is against Louisville in week 13: 65.6% with a win, 16.6% with a loss. It reaches the SEC title game in 5.1% of seasons. Winning it puts Kentucky at 100.0% and losing it at 75.8%; missing it leaves 37.5%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Florida | 54.2% | 60.2% | 15.3% |
| Week 12 | at Missouri | 37.5% | 68.3% | 22.4% |
| Week 13 | vs Louisville | 47.0% | 65.6% | 16.6% |
Kentucky's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | 11.9% | 100.0% |
| 9-3 | 32.8% | 78.5% |
| 8-4 | 37.5% | 5.4% |
| 7-5 | 17.8% | <0.1% |
Kentucky's results
week 1, beat Youngstown State 45-13; week 2, lost to Alabama 17-45; week 3, beat Texas A&M 31-21; week 4, beat South Alabama 45-21; week 5, beat South Carolina 35-34; week 6, beat LSU 35-34; week 7, beat Oklahoma 21-13; week 8, beat Vanderbilt 34-17; week 10, lost to Tennessee 6-34.
The SEC race
| Team | Wins the SEC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 54.7% | 97.4% |
| Alabama | 27.4% | 97.8% |
| Texas | 10.2% | 76.8% |
| Tennessee | 5.5% | 43.0% |
| Kentucky | 1.0% | 39.6% |
| Ole Miss | 0.7% | 32.7% |
| LSU | 0.3% | 36.5% |
| Oklahoma | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| South Carolina | 0.1% | 8.3% |
| Missouri | <0.1% | 2.6% |
The SEC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Kentucky make the College Football Playoff?
- Kentucky is 7-2 and makes the playoff in 39.6% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 8.4 projected wins. It wins the SEC in 1.0% and the national title in 0.32%.
- What does Kentucky need to make the playoff?
- Kentucky can afford one loss. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 78.5%, at 8-4 in 5.4%. The game that decides the most is against Louisville in week 13: 65.6% with a win, 16.6% with a loss. It reaches the SEC title game in 5.1% of seasons. Winning it puts Kentucky at 100.0% and losing it at 75.8%; missing it leaves 37.5%.
- Who should Kentucky fans root for in week 11?
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 4.73% in playoff odds, then Boston College over Notre Dame.
- What is Kentucky's toughest game left?
- At Missouri in week 12, with a 37.5% chance to win.
- How are Kentucky's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Kentucky's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.