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Wake Forest playoff odds
Wake Forest makes the College Football Playoff in 43.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Wake Forest playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Wake Forest is 8-1 (5-1 in the ACC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 43.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 53.1%), wins the ACC in 19.9%, earns a top-four seed and first-round bye in 5.5% and wins the national title in 1.44%, with 10.1 projected wins.
That is the 10th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 12.
Who Wake Forest fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Wake Forest's playoff odds the most.
- Miami over Duke, worth 5.66%
- Louisville over North Carolina, worth 3.36%
- Purdue over Iowa, worth 3.26%
- Boston College over Notre Dame, worth 2.64%
- Stanford over Virginia Tech, worth 2.07%
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 1.78%
What Wake Forest needs
Wake Forest has to win out. At 11-1 it makes the playoff in 91.2%, at 10-2 in 21.6%. The game that decides the most is at SMU in week 11: 67.5% with a win, 10.5% with a loss. It reaches the ACC title game in 63.3% of seasons. Winning it puts Wake Forest at 100.0% and losing it at 50.9%; missing it leaves 3.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at SMU | 57.3% | 67.5% | 10.5% |
| Week 12 | at Georgia Tech | 89.5% | 47.2% | 8.6% |
| Week 13 | vs Duke | 68.0% | 57.6% | 12.3% |
Wake Forest's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 11-1 | 37.1% | 91.2% |
| 10-2 | 42.8% | 21.6% |
| 9-3 | 17.9% | 0.2% |
| 8-4 | 2.2% | <0.1% |
Wake Forest's results
week 1, beat Akron 38-16; week 2, beat Purdue 38-36; week 3, lost to Miami 20-33; week 4, beat Louisville 30-27; week 5, beat Stanford 57-3; week 6, beat NC State 38-14; week 7, beat California 41-7; week 9, beat Virginia 51-7; week 10, beat Merrimack 77-0.
The ACC race
| Team | Wins the ACC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | 70.6% | 96.1% |
| Wake Forest | 19.9% | 43.1% |
| Louisville | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| SMU | 3.5% | 3.8% |
| Duke | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Clemson | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| North Carolina | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Pittsburgh | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Boston College | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| California | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The ACC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Wake Forest make the College Football Playoff?
- Wake Forest is 8-1 and makes the playoff in 43.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 10.1 projected wins. It wins the ACC in 19.9% and the national title in 1.44%.
- What does Wake Forest need to make the playoff?
- Wake Forest has to win out. At 11-1 it makes the playoff in 91.2%, at 10-2 in 21.6%. The game that decides the most is at SMU in week 11: 67.5% with a win, 10.5% with a loss. It reaches the ACC title game in 63.3% of seasons. Winning it puts Wake Forest at 100.0% and losing it at 50.9%; missing it leaves 3.1%.
- Who should Wake Forest fans root for in week 11?
- Miami over Duke, worth 5.66% in playoff odds, then Louisville over North Carolina.
- What is Wake Forest's toughest game left?
- At SMU in week 11, with a 57.3% chance to win.
- How are Wake Forest's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Wake Forest's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.