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Clemson playoff odds
Clemson makes the College Football Playoff in 0.4% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Clemson playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Clemson is 6-3 (4-2 in the ACC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 0.4% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 0.2%), wins the ACC in 0.3% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 7.5 projected wins.
That is the 37th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Clemson fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Clemson's playoff odds the most.
- SMU over Wake Forest, worth 0.54%
- North Carolina over Louisville, worth 0.36%
- Virginia Tech over Stanford, worth 0.11%
- Georgia Southern over Georgia State, worth 0.06%
- Syracuse over NC State, worth 0.06%
- Duke over Miami, worth 0.05%
What Clemson needs
Clemson needs help even if it wins out. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 2.5%. The game that decides the most is at Duke in week 12: 1.2% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the ACC title game in 2.1% of seasons. Winning it puts Clemson at 100.0% and losing it at 0.2%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Georgia Tech | 82.9% | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Duke | 29.5% | 1.2% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs South Carolina | 40.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
Clemson's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | 11.7% | 2.5% |
| 8-4 | 37.9% | 0.2% |
| 7-5 | 41.7% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 8.7% | <0.1% |
Clemson's results
week 1, lost to LSU 10-51; week 2, beat Georgia Southern 22-7; week 3, beat North Carolina 28-20; week 4, beat California 24-10; week 5, lost to Miami 13-41; week 7, beat Charleston Southern 37-0; week 8, lost to Virginia Tech 16-20; week 9, beat Florida State 36-24; week 10, beat Syracuse 18-13.
The ACC race
| Team | Wins the ACC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | 70.6% | 96.1% |
| Wake Forest | 19.9% | 43.1% |
| Louisville | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| SMU | 3.5% | 3.8% |
| Duke | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Clemson | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| North Carolina | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Pittsburgh | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Boston College | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| California | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The ACC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Clemson make the College Football Playoff?
- Clemson is 6-3 and makes the playoff in 0.4% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 7.5 projected wins. It wins the ACC in 0.3% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Clemson need to make the playoff?
- Clemson needs help even if it wins out. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 2.5%. The game that decides the most is at Duke in week 12: 1.2% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the ACC title game in 2.1% of seasons. Winning it puts Clemson at 100.0% and losing it at 0.2%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should Clemson fans root for in week 11?
- SMU over Wake Forest, worth 0.54% in playoff odds, then North Carolina over Louisville.
- What is Clemson's toughest game left?
- At Duke in week 12, with a 29.5% chance to win.
- How are Clemson's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Clemson's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.