simulating…
Georgia Southern playoff odds
Georgia Southern makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
Playoff seed
Your team's games
Simulating a season…
Standings
Georgia Southern playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Georgia Southern is 5-4 (4-1 in the Sun Belt) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Sun Belt in 16.2% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 6.8 projected wins.
That is the 82nd-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Georgia Southern fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Georgia Southern's playoff odds.
What Georgia Southern needs
Even at 8-4, Georgia Southern makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the Sun Belt title game in 27.4% of seasons. Winning it puts Georgia Southern at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 91.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Georgia State | 57.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Troy | 65.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Louisiana Tech | 52.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Georgia Southern's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | 22.8% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 39.4% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 28.9% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 8.9% | <0.1% |
Georgia Southern's results
week 1, beat Charleston Southern 31-0; week 2, lost to Clemson 7-22; week 3, lost to Jacksonville State 27-31; week 4, lost to Houston 28-42; week 5, beat Coastal Carolina 31-24; week 6, lost to James Madison 24-27; week 7, beat Old Dominion 23-15; week 9, beat App State 19-3; week 10, beat Marshall 49-13.
The Sun Belt race
| Team | Wins the Sun Belt | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech | 42.3% | 0.2% |
| James Madison | 41.0% | <0.1% |
| Georgia Southern | 16.2% | <0.1% |
| Louisiana | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Coastal Carolina | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arkansas State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Southern Miss | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| App State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Georgia State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Marshall | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Sun Belt title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Georgia Southern make the College Football Playoff?
- Georgia Southern is 5-4 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 6.8 projected wins. It wins the Sun Belt in 16.2% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Georgia Southern need to make the playoff?
- Even at 8-4, Georgia Southern makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the Sun Belt title game in 27.4% of seasons. Winning it puts Georgia Southern at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 91.1% of seasons.
- Who should Georgia Southern fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Georgia Southern's playoff odds.
- What is Georgia Southern's toughest game left?
- Hosting Louisiana Tech in week 13, with a 52.6% chance to win.
- How are Georgia Southern's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Georgia Southern's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.