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Louisiana Tech playoff odds
Louisiana Tech makes the College Football Playoff in 0.2% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Louisiana Tech playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Louisiana Tech is 7-2 (5-0 in the Sun Belt) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 0.2% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 1.7%), wins the Sun Belt in 42.3% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 9.1 projected wins.
That is the 40th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Louisiana Tech fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Louisiana Tech's playoff odds the most.
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 0.70%
- UNLV over New Mexico, worth 0.25%
- Baylor over BYU, worth 0.14%
- LSU over Texas, worth 0.11%
- James Madison over UConn, worth 0.07%
- Akron over Western Michigan, worth 0.06%
What Louisiana Tech needs
Louisiana Tech needs help even if it wins out. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 0.6%. The game that decides the most is at Georgia Southern in week 13: 0.5% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Sun Belt title game in 98.7% of seasons. Winning it puts Louisiana Tech at 0.5% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Southern Miss | 86.4% | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Arkansas State | 80.0% | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Georgia Southern | 47.4% | 0.5% | <0.1% |
Louisiana Tech's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | 34.8% | 0.6% |
| 9-3 | 46.4% | <0.1% |
| 8-4 | 16.7% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 2.2% | <0.1% |
Louisiana Tech's results
week 1, beat Northwestern State 80-6; week 2, lost to LSU 14-45; week 3, lost to Baylor 19-36; week 5, beat Army 31-29; week 6, beat Louisiana 32-31; week 7, beat UL Monroe 24-0; week 8, beat Old Dominion 26-0; week 9, beat South Alabama 35-20; week 10, beat Troy 41-17.
The Sun Belt race
| Team | Wins the Sun Belt | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech | 42.3% | 0.2% |
| James Madison | 41.0% | <0.1% |
| Georgia Southern | 16.2% | <0.1% |
| Louisiana | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Coastal Carolina | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arkansas State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Southern Miss | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| App State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Georgia State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Marshall | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Sun Belt title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Louisiana Tech make the College Football Playoff?
- Louisiana Tech is 7-2 and makes the playoff in 0.2% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 9.1 projected wins. It wins the Sun Belt in 42.3% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Louisiana Tech need to make the playoff?
- Louisiana Tech needs help even if it wins out. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 0.6%. The game that decides the most is at Georgia Southern in week 13: 0.5% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Sun Belt title game in 98.7% of seasons. Winning it puts Louisiana Tech at 0.5% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should Louisiana Tech fans root for in week 11?
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 0.70% in playoff odds, then UNLV over New Mexico.
- What is Louisiana Tech's toughest game left?
- At Georgia Southern in week 13, with a 47.4% chance to win.
- How are Louisiana Tech's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Louisiana Tech's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.