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UConn playoff odds
UConn makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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UConn playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
UConn is 4-5 through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the FBS Independents in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 5.7 projected wins.
That is the 127th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who UConn fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on UConn's playoff odds.
What UConn needs
Even at 7-5, UConn makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 59.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs James Madison | 30.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Old Dominion | 76.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Wyoming | 60.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
UConn's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | 15.9% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 43.2% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 32.8% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 8.2% | <0.1% |
UConn's results
week 1, beat Lafayette 56-7; week 2, lost to Maryland 14-38; week 3, beat Southern Miss 48-20; week 4, lost to Miami (OH) 21-24; week 5, lost to Syracuse 41-42; week 6, beat Temple 34-20; week 8, beat Massachusetts 35-16; week 9, lost to Air Force 26-35; week 10, lost to North Carolina 21-38.
Questions
- Will UConn make the College Football Playoff?
- UConn is 4-5 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 5.7 projected wins. It wins the FBS Independents in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does UConn need to make the playoff?
- Even at 7-5, UConn makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 59.1% of seasons.
- Who should UConn fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on UConn's playoff odds.
- What is UConn's toughest game left?
- Hosting James Madison in week 11, with a 30.0% chance to win.
- How are UConn's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in UConn's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.