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Syracuse playoff odds
Syracuse makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Syracuse playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Syracuse is 4-5 (2-5 in the ACC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the ACC in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 5.2 projected wins.
That is the 120th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Syracuse fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Syracuse's playoff odds.
What Syracuse needs
Even at 7-5, Syracuse makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 35.7% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at NC State | 52.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Boston College | 58.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Notre Dame | 7.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Syracuse's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | 3.2% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 32.4% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 44.0% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 20.3% | <0.1% |
Syracuse's results
week 1, beat New Hampshire 66-3; week 2, lost to California 18-21; week 3, lost to Pittsburgh 13-27; week 5, beat UConn 42-41; week 6, lost to Virginia 25-28; week 7, lost to Louisville 26-34; week 8, beat North Carolina 31-30; week 9, beat SMU 30-27; week 10, lost to Clemson 13-18.
The ACC race
| Team | Wins the ACC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | 70.6% | 96.1% |
| Wake Forest | 19.9% | 43.1% |
| Louisville | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| SMU | 3.5% | 3.8% |
| Duke | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Clemson | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| North Carolina | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Pittsburgh | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Boston College | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| California | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The ACC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Syracuse make the College Football Playoff?
- Syracuse is 4-5 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 5.2 projected wins. It wins the ACC in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Syracuse need to make the playoff?
- Even at 7-5, Syracuse makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 35.7% of seasons.
- Who should Syracuse fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Syracuse's playoff odds.
- What is Syracuse's toughest game left?
- Hosting Notre Dame in week 13, with a 7.9% chance to win.
- How are Syracuse's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Syracuse's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.