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Notre Dame playoff odds
Notre Dame makes the College Football Playoff in 94.4% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Notre Dame playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Notre Dame is 8-1 through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 94.4% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 81.3%), wins the FBS Independents in <0.1%, earns a top-four seed and first-round bye in 48.6% and wins the national title in 16.30%, with 10.8 projected wins.
That is the 4th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 9.
Who Notre Dame fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Notre Dame's playoff odds the most.
- Miami over Duke, worth 1.52%
- SMU over Wake Forest, worth 1.32%
- Purdue over Iowa, worth 1.22%
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 1.21%
- North Carolina over Louisville, worth 1.16%
- Wisconsin over Maryland, worth 1.15%
What Notre Dame needs
Notre Dame can afford one loss. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 78.7%, at 9-3 in 2.1%. The game that decides the most is at Syracuse in week 13: 97.1% with a win, 62.0% with a loss.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Boston College | 98.4% | 95.1% | 45.4% |
| Week 12 | vs SMU | 87.4% | 97.6% | 71.9% |
| Week 13 | at Syracuse | 92.1% | 97.1% | 62.0% |
Notre Dame's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 11-1 | 79.8% | 100.0% |
| 10-2 | 18.5% | 78.7% |
| 9-3 | 1.7% | 2.1% |
Notre Dame's results
week 1, beat Wisconsin 41-13; week 2, beat Rice 52-0; week 3, beat Michigan State 27-10; week 4, beat Purdue 49-10; week 5, beat North Carolina 37-26; week 6, beat Stanford 58-7; week 7, lost to BYU 24-28; week 9, beat Navy 35-13; week 10, beat Miami 31-24.
Questions
- Will Notre Dame make the College Football Playoff?
- Notre Dame is 8-1 and makes the playoff in 94.4% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 10.8 projected wins. It wins the FBS Independents in <0.1% and the national title in 16.30%.
- What does Notre Dame need to make the playoff?
- Notre Dame can afford one loss. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 78.7%, at 9-3 in 2.1%. The game that decides the most is at Syracuse in week 13: 97.1% with a win, 62.0% with a loss.
- Who should Notre Dame fans root for in week 11?
- Miami over Duke, worth 1.52% in playoff odds, then SMU over Wake Forest.
- What is Notre Dame's toughest game left?
- Hosting SMU in week 12, with a 87.4% chance to win.
- How are Notre Dame's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Notre Dame's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.