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Maryland playoff odds
Maryland makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Maryland playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Maryland is 3-6 (1-5 in the Big Ten) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Big Ten in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 3.6 projected wins.
That is the 93rd-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Maryland fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Maryland's playoff odds.
What Maryland needs
Even at 6-6, Maryland makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Wisconsin | 28.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at USC | 9.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Penn State | 21.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Maryland's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | 1.0% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 9.7% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 35.9% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 53.4% | <0.1% |
Maryland's results
week 1, beat Hampton 62-0; week 2, beat UConn 38-14; week 3, lost to Virginia Tech 26-35; week 4, lost to UCLA 3-54; week 5, lost to Nebraska 23-48; week 6, lost to Ohio State 16-45; week 7, lost to Rutgers 30-37; week 9, lost to Illinois 17-20; week 10, beat Purdue 34-29.
The Big Ten race
| Team | Wins the Big Ten | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 42.4% | 62.9% |
| UCLA | 20.8% | 67.0% |
| Oregon | 14.2% | 24.6% |
| Ohio State | 12.8% | 29.4% |
| USC | 6.0% | 13.0% |
| Iowa | 1.7% | 9.3% |
| Wisconsin | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Illinois | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Northwestern | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Minnesota | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big Ten title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Maryland make the College Football Playoff?
- Maryland is 3-6 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 3.6 projected wins. It wins the Big Ten in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Maryland need to make the playoff?
- Even at 6-6, Maryland makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
- Who should Maryland fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Maryland's playoff odds.
- What is Maryland's toughest game left?
- At USC in week 12, with a 9.2% chance to win.
- How are Maryland's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Maryland's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.