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UCLA playoff odds
UCLA makes the College Football Playoff in 67.0% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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UCLA playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
UCLA is 9-0 (6-0 in the Big Ten) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 67.0% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 45.7%), wins the Big Ten in 20.8%, earns a top-four seed and first-round bye in 25.5% and wins the national title in 0.83%, with 10.7 projected wins.
That is the 8th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 4.
Who UCLA fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move UCLA's playoff odds the most.
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 2.96%
- Purdue over Iowa, worth 2.71%
- Northwestern over Ohio State, worth 2.57%
- Texas A&M over Tennessee, worth 2.03%
- Oregon over Michigan, worth 1.94%
- Oklahoma State over Texas Tech, worth 1.84%
What UCLA needs
UCLA can afford one loss. At 11-1 it makes the playoff in 97.6%, at 10-2 in 23.5%. The game that decides the most is at Michigan in week 12: 88.5% with a win, 43.4% with a loss. It reaches the Big Ten title game in 70.9% of seasons. Winning it puts UCLA at 100.0% and losing it at 85.7%; missing it leaves 11.5%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Illinois | 69.7% | 81.2% | 34.3% |
| Week 12 | at Michigan | 52.2% | 88.5% | 43.4% |
| Week 13 | vs USC | 51.2% | 88.7% | 44.3% |
UCLA's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 12-0 | 21.4% | 100.0% |
| 11-1 | 39.5% | 97.6% |
| 10-2 | 30.1% | 23.5% |
| 9-3 | 9.0% | <0.1% |
UCLA's results
week 1, beat California 45-24; week 2, beat San Diego State 28-10; week 3, beat Purdue 52-38; week 4, beat Maryland 54-3; week 6, beat Oregon 17-15; week 7, beat Wisconsin 17-7; week 8, beat Michigan State 28-10; week 9, beat Nevada 27-0; week 10, beat Minnesota 34-20.
The Big Ten race
| Team | Wins the Big Ten | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 42.4% | 62.9% |
| UCLA | 20.8% | 67.0% |
| Oregon | 14.2% | 24.6% |
| Ohio State | 12.8% | 29.4% |
| USC | 6.0% | 13.0% |
| Iowa | 1.7% | 9.3% |
| Wisconsin | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Illinois | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Northwestern | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Minnesota | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big Ten title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will UCLA make the College Football Playoff?
- UCLA is 9-0 and makes the playoff in 67.0% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 10.7 projected wins. It wins the Big Ten in 20.8% and the national title in 0.83%.
- What does UCLA need to make the playoff?
- UCLA can afford one loss. At 11-1 it makes the playoff in 97.6%, at 10-2 in 23.5%. The game that decides the most is at Michigan in week 12: 88.5% with a win, 43.4% with a loss. It reaches the Big Ten title game in 70.9% of seasons. Winning it puts UCLA at 100.0% and losing it at 85.7%; missing it leaves 11.5%.
- Who should UCLA fans root for in week 11?
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 2.96% in playoff odds, then Purdue over Iowa.
- What is UCLA's toughest game left?
- Hosting USC in week 13, with a 51.2% chance to win.
- How are UCLA's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in UCLA's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.