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Illinois playoff odds
Illinois makes the College Football Playoff in 0.4% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Illinois playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Illinois is 6-3 (4-2 in the Big Ten) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 0.4% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 0.3%), wins the Big Ten in 0.4% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 7.0 projected wins.
That is the 36th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Illinois fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Illinois's playoff odds the most.
- Northwestern over Ohio State, worth 0.24%
- Maryland over Wisconsin, worth 0.19%
- Michigan over Oregon, worth 0.16%
- Purdue over Iowa, worth 0.13%
- Nebraska over Rutgers, worth 0.05%
- Michigan State over Washington, worth 0.04%
What Illinois needs
Illinois needs help even if it wins out. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 8.3%. The game that decides the most is at UCLA in week 11: 1.4% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Big Ten title game in 1.5% of seasons. Winning it puts Illinois at 100.0% and losing it at 0.7%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at UCLA | 30.3% | 1.4% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Iowa | 37.4% | 1.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Northwestern | 31.3% | 1.3% | <0.1% |
Illinois's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | 5.0% | 8.3% |
| 8-4 | 21.7% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 40.5% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 32.7% | <0.1% |
Illinois's results
week 1, beat UAB 42-23; week 2, lost to Duke 27-31; week 3, beat Southern Illinois 48-10; week 4, lost to Ohio State 19-42; week 5, lost to Purdue 17-24; week 6, beat Michigan State 38-37; week 8, beat Oregon 21-10; week 9, beat Maryland 20-17; week 10, beat Nebraska 24-13.
The Big Ten race
| Team | Wins the Big Ten | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 42.4% | 62.9% |
| UCLA | 20.8% | 67.0% |
| Oregon | 14.2% | 24.6% |
| Ohio State | 12.8% | 29.4% |
| USC | 6.0% | 13.0% |
| Iowa | 1.7% | 9.3% |
| Wisconsin | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Illinois | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Northwestern | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Minnesota | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big Ten title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Illinois make the College Football Playoff?
- Illinois is 6-3 and makes the playoff in 0.4% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 7.0 projected wins. It wins the Big Ten in 0.4% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Illinois need to make the playoff?
- Illinois needs help even if it wins out. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 8.3%. The game that decides the most is at UCLA in week 11: 1.4% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Big Ten title game in 1.5% of seasons. Winning it puts Illinois at 100.0% and losing it at 0.7%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should Illinois fans root for in week 11?
- Northwestern over Ohio State, worth 0.24% in playoff odds, then Maryland over Wisconsin.
- What is Illinois's toughest game left?
- At UCLA in week 11, with a 30.3% chance to win.
- How are Illinois's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Illinois's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.