The Sun Belt title race

Updated November 8, after week 9, from 2.5 million simulated seasons.

1. Louisiana Tech42.3%
2. James Madison41.0%
3. Georgia Southern16.2%
4. Everyone else0.5%

Team	Conf	Overall	Title game	Wins Sun Belt	Playoff
Louisiana Tech	5-0	7-2	98.7%	42.3%	0.2%
James Madison	5-2	8-2	72.2%	41.0%	<0.1%
Georgia Southern	4-1	5-4	27.4%	16.2%	<0.1%
Louisiana	3-2	6-3	0.8%	0.3%	<0.1%
Coastal Carolina	2-3	3-6	0.3%	0.1%	<0.1%
Arkansas State	2-3	4-5	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Southern Miss	2-3	3-6	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%
App State	2-3	5-4	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Georgia State	2-3	5-4	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
Marshall	2-3	5-4	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
Old Dominion	2-5	3-7	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
South Alabama	2-3	4-5	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
Troy	2-3	4-5	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
UL Monroe	2-3	2-7	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%

Likeliest title games

1. 71.6% of seasonsJames MadisonJMU57%43%Louisiana TechLT
2. 26.8% of seasonsGeorgia SouthernGASO59%41%Louisiana TechLT

The games that decide the race

1. 1Louisiana TechatGeorgia SouthernWeek 13Sat, time TBA0.23Most at stakeGeorgia Southern43.2James Madison42.6Louisiana Tech2.4
2. 2Georgia SouthernatGeorgia StateWeek 11Sat 3:30 PM ET, ESPN+0.20Most at stakeGeorgia Southern41.1James Madison40.2Coastal Carolina0.6
3. 3Georgia SouthernatTroyWeek 12Sat, time TBA0.16Most at stakeGeorgia Southern35.7James Madison34.8App State0.4
4. 4Coastal CarolinaatJames MadisonWeek 13Sat, time TBA0.09Most at stakeJames Madison47.7Georgia Southern43.8Coastal Carolina2.4
5. 5Arkansas StateatLouisiana TechWeek 12Sat, time TBA0.03Most at stakeLouisiana Tech6.3Louisiana4.2Georgia Southern2.9
6. 6Southern MissatLouisiana TechWeek 11Sat 5:00 PM ET, ESPN+0.03Most at stakeLouisiana Tech9.2Louisiana6.1Georgia Southern3.1
7. 7LouisianaatGeorgia StateWeek 13Sat, time TBA0.02Most at stakeGeorgia Southern2.4James Madison2.2Louisiana1.5
8. 8Coastal CarolinaatLouisianaWeek 12Sat, time TBA0.02Most at stakeJames Madison3.7Georgia Southern2.5Louisiana1.1

How the Sun Belt breaks ties

The East and West division winners meet in the title game. It is played at the higher seed's stadium.

Ties are broken in this order:

1. Head-to-head results among the tied teams
2. Record within the division
3. Record against common conference opponents, starting with the highest-placed and working down the standings
4. Record against all common conference opponents
5. The conference's ranking metric

Questions

Who is favored to win the Sun Belt in 2026?

Louisiana Tech wins the Sun Belt in 42.3% of simulated seasons, ahead of James Madison (41.0%) and Georgia Southern (16.2%).

Who will play in the Sun Belt championship game?

The likeliest pairing is James Madison against Louisiana Tech, in 71.6% of seasons. James Madison reaches the game in 72.2% and Louisiana Tech in 98.7%.

How many Sun Belt teams will make the College Football Playoff?

0.0 on average across the simulated seasons. Louisiana Tech makes it in 0.2%, James Madison makes it in <0.1%, Georgia Southern makes it in <0.1%.

Other conferences: ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Ten Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West Pac-12 SEC

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