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Southern Miss playoff odds
Southern Miss makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Southern Miss playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Southern Miss is 3-6 (2-3 in the Sun Belt) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Sun Belt in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 4.0 projected wins.
That is the 118th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Southern Miss fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Southern Miss's playoff odds.
What Southern Miss needs
Even at 6-6, Southern Miss makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 3.7% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Louisiana Tech | 13.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs South Alabama | 43.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Old Dominion | 43.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Southern Miss's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | 3.7% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 23.5% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 43.0% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 29.8% | <0.1% |
Southern Miss's results
week 1, beat Alcorn State 49-3; week 2, lost to Auburn 8-43; week 3, lost to UConn 20-48; week 4, lost to Tulane 21-24; week 6, lost to Troy 34-55; week 7, lost to Arkansas State 13-23; week 8, beat Louisiana 35-31; week 9, beat UL Monroe 35-21; week 10, lost to James Madison 23-54.
The Sun Belt race
| Team | Wins the Sun Belt | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech | 42.3% | 0.2% |
| James Madison | 41.0% | <0.1% |
| Georgia Southern | 16.2% | <0.1% |
| Louisiana | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Coastal Carolina | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arkansas State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Southern Miss | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| App State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Georgia State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Marshall | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Sun Belt title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Southern Miss make the College Football Playoff?
- Southern Miss is 3-6 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 4.0 projected wins. It wins the Sun Belt in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Southern Miss need to make the playoff?
- Even at 6-6, Southern Miss makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 3.7% of seasons.
- Who should Southern Miss fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Southern Miss's playoff odds.
- What is Southern Miss's toughest game left?
- At Louisiana Tech in week 11, with a 13.6% chance to win.
- How are Southern Miss's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Southern Miss's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.