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Old Dominion playoff odds
Old Dominion makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Old Dominion playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Old Dominion is 3-7 (2-5 in the Sun Belt) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Sun Belt in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 3.8 projected wins.
That is the 107th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Old Dominion fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Old Dominion's playoff odds.
What Old Dominion needs
Even at 5-7, Old Dominion makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 12 | at UConn | 23.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Southern Miss | 56.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Old Dominion's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 5-7 | 14.4% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 50.8% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 34.9% | <0.1% |
Old Dominion's results
week 1, beat Norfolk State 31-10; week 2, lost to Virginia Tech 21-44; week 3, lost to East Carolina 17-20; week 4, lost to James Madison 20-46; week 5, lost to Georgia State 10-42; week 6, beat App State 10-3; week 7, lost to Georgia Southern 15-23; week 8, lost to Louisiana Tech 0-26; week 9, lost to Marshall 23-36; week 10, beat Coastal Carolina 21-8.
The Sun Belt race
| Team | Wins the Sun Belt | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech | 42.3% | 0.2% |
| James Madison | 41.0% | <0.1% |
| Georgia Southern | 16.2% | <0.1% |
| Louisiana | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Coastal Carolina | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arkansas State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Southern Miss | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| App State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Georgia State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Marshall | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Sun Belt title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Old Dominion make the College Football Playoff?
- Old Dominion is 3-7 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 3.8 projected wins. It wins the Sun Belt in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Old Dominion need to make the playoff?
- Even at 5-7, Old Dominion makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
- Who should Old Dominion fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Old Dominion's playoff odds.
- What is Old Dominion's toughest game left?
- At UConn in week 12, with a 23.3% chance to win.
- How are Old Dominion's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Old Dominion's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.