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Coastal Carolina playoff odds
Coastal Carolina makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Coastal Carolina playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Coastal Carolina is 3-6 (2-3 in the Sun Belt) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Sun Belt in 0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 3.9 projected wins.
That is the 74th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Coastal Carolina fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Coastal Carolina's playoff odds.
What Coastal Carolina needs
Even at 6-6, Coastal Carolina makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 2.0% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Arkansas State | 53.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Louisiana | 23.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at James Madison | 10.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Coastal Carolina's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | 2.0% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 17.2% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 46.7% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 34.1% | <0.1% |
Coastal Carolina's results
week 1, lost to West Virginia 24-31; week 2, beat Fordham 45-7; week 3, lost to Delaware 14-22; week 4, lost to Liberty 17-34; week 5, lost to Georgia Southern 24-31; week 6, beat Marshall 27-21; week 7, lost to App State 32-35; week 9, beat Georgia State 31-20; week 10, lost to Old Dominion 8-21.
The Sun Belt race
| Team | Wins the Sun Belt | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech | 42.3% | 0.2% |
| James Madison | 41.0% | <0.1% |
| Georgia Southern | 16.2% | <0.1% |
| Louisiana | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Coastal Carolina | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arkansas State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Southern Miss | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| App State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Georgia State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Marshall | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Sun Belt title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Coastal Carolina make the College Football Playoff?
- Coastal Carolina is 3-6 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 3.9 projected wins. It wins the Sun Belt in 0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Coastal Carolina need to make the playoff?
- Even at 6-6, Coastal Carolina makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 2.0% of seasons.
- Who should Coastal Carolina fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Coastal Carolina's playoff odds.
- What is Coastal Carolina's toughest game left?
- At James Madison in week 13, with a 10.5% chance to win.
- How are Coastal Carolina's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Coastal Carolina's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.