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Liberty playoff odds
Liberty makes the College Football Playoff in 0.2% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Liberty playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Liberty is 8-1 (5-0 in the Conference USA) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 0.2% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 6.7%), wins the Conference USA in 78.2% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 10.7 projected wins.
That is the 41st-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Liberty fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Liberty's playoff odds the most.
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 0.53%
- UNLV over New Mexico, worth 0.23%
- James Madison over UConn, worth 0.09%
- Coastal Carolina over Arkansas State, worth 0.06%
- South Florida over Memphis, worth 0.06%
- San Diego State over Utah State, worth 0.06%
What Liberty needs
Even at 11-1, Liberty makes the playoff in 0.2% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at Missouri State in week 13: 0.2% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Conference USA title game in 99.4% of seasons. Winning it puts Liberty at 0.2% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Middle Tennessee | 94.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Western Kentucky | 92.6% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Missouri State | 86.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
Liberty's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 11-1 | 75.6% | 0.2% |
| 10-2 | 21.5% | <0.1% |
| 9-3 | 2.7% | <0.1% |
Liberty's results
week 1, lost to James Madison 13-20; week 2, beat Gardner-Webb 24-23; week 3, beat Ball State 51-15; week 4, beat Coastal Carolina 34-17; week 5, beat Delaware 30-14; week 6, beat Sam Houston 35-3; week 8, beat Kennesaw State 34-6; week 9, beat Florida International 49-10; week 10, beat New Mexico State 30-14.
The Conference USA race
| Team | Wins the Conference USA | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 78.2% | 0.2% |
| Jacksonville State | 21.2% | <0.1% |
| Delaware | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Middle Tennessee | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Kennesaw State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Missouri State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Florida International | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Western Kentucky | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| New Mexico State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Sam Houston | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Conference USA title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Liberty make the College Football Playoff?
- Liberty is 8-1 and makes the playoff in 0.2% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 10.7 projected wins. It wins the Conference USA in 78.2% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Liberty need to make the playoff?
- Even at 11-1, Liberty makes the playoff in 0.2% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at Missouri State in week 13: 0.2% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Conference USA title game in 99.4% of seasons. Winning it puts Liberty at 0.2% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should Liberty fans root for in week 11?
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 0.53% in playoff odds, then UNLV over New Mexico.
- What is Liberty's toughest game left?
- At Missouri State in week 13, with a 86.0% chance to win.
- How are Liberty's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Liberty's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.