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Kennesaw State playoff odds
Kennesaw State makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Kennesaw State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Kennesaw State is 3-6 (2-3 in the Conference USA) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Conference USA in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 4.7 projected wins.
That is the 89th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Kennesaw State fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Kennesaw State's playoff odds.
What Kennesaw State needs
Even at 6-6, Kennesaw State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 22.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Sam Houston | 64.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Florida International | 59.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Western Kentucky | 50.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Kennesaw State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | 22.1% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 39.4% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 29.3% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 9.2% | <0.1% |
Kennesaw State's results
week 1, beat West Georgia 47-0; week 2, lost to Georgia State 17-31; week 3, lost to Tennessee 9-42; week 4, lost to Arkansas State 14-17; week 6, lost to Jacksonville State 26-27; week 7, lost to Missouri State 21-24; week 8, lost to Liberty 6-34; week 9, beat Middle Tennessee 44-28; week 10, beat Delaware 42-40.
The Conference USA race
| Team | Wins the Conference USA | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 78.2% | 0.2% |
| Jacksonville State | 21.2% | <0.1% |
| Delaware | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Middle Tennessee | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Kennesaw State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Missouri State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Florida International | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Western Kentucky | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| New Mexico State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Sam Houston | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Conference USA title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Kennesaw State make the College Football Playoff?
- Kennesaw State is 3-6 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 4.7 projected wins. It wins the Conference USA in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Kennesaw State need to make the playoff?
- Even at 6-6, Kennesaw State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 22.1% of seasons.
- Who should Kennesaw State fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Kennesaw State's playoff odds.
- What is Kennesaw State's toughest game left?
- At Western Kentucky in week 13, with a 50.1% chance to win.
- How are Kennesaw State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Kennesaw State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.