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Delaware playoff odds
Delaware makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Delaware playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Delaware is 4-5 (2-3 in the Conference USA) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Conference USA in 0.2% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 5.7 projected wins.
That is the 77th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Delaware fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Delaware's playoff odds.
What Delaware needs
Even at 7-5, Delaware makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the Conference USA title game in 1.3% of seasons. Winning it puts Delaware at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 59.9% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Florida International | 66.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at New Mexico State | 58.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Jacksonville State | 46.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Delaware's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | 20.7% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 39.2% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 30.5% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 9.6% | <0.1% |
Delaware's results
week 1, beat Merrimack 42-7; week 2, lost to Vanderbilt 26-35; week 3, beat Coastal Carolina 22-14; week 4, lost to Virginia 3-42; week 5, lost to Liberty 14-30; week 7, lost to Middle Tennessee 30-33; week 8, beat Missouri State 61-38; week 9, beat Western Kentucky 35-21; week 10, lost to Kennesaw State 40-42.
The Conference USA race
| Team | Wins the Conference USA | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 78.2% | 0.2% |
| Jacksonville State | 21.2% | <0.1% |
| Delaware | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Middle Tennessee | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Kennesaw State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Missouri State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Florida International | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Western Kentucky | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| New Mexico State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Sam Houston | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Conference USA title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Delaware make the College Football Playoff?
- Delaware is 4-5 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 5.7 projected wins. It wins the Conference USA in 0.2% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Delaware need to make the playoff?
- Even at 7-5, Delaware makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the Conference USA title game in 1.3% of seasons. Winning it puts Delaware at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 59.9% of seasons.
- Who should Delaware fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Delaware's playoff odds.
- What is Delaware's toughest game left?
- Hosting Jacksonville State in week 13, with a 46.9% chance to win.
- How are Delaware's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Delaware's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.