The SEC title race

Updated November 8, after week 9, from 2.5 million simulated seasons.

1. Georgia54.7%
2. Alabama27.4%
3. Texas10.2%
4. Tennessee5.5%
5. Everyone else2.3%

Team	Conf	Overall	Title game	Wins SEC	Playoff
Georgia	6-1	8-1	94.7%	54.7%	97.4%
Alabama	5-2	7-2	57.4%	27.4%	97.8%
Texas	4-2	7-2	22.5%	10.2%	76.8%
Tennessee	4-2	7-2	16.4%	5.5%	43.0%
Kentucky	5-2	7-2	5.1%	1.0%	39.6%
Ole Miss	4-3	6-3	2.2%	0.7%	32.7%
LSU	3-3	6-3	0.7%	0.3%	36.5%
Oklahoma	3-3	5-4	0.6%	0.2%	1.5%
South Carolina	4-3	6-3	0.4%	0.1%	8.3%
Missouri	3-3	6-3	0.2%	<0.1%	2.6%
Florida	3-4	5-4	<0.1%	<0.1%	1.4%
ArkansasOut	1-5	3-6	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
Auburn	3-4	5-4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
Mississippi StateOut	2-5	4-5	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
Texas A&MOut	1-5	4-5	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
VanderbiltOut	1-5	4-5	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%

Clinching scenarios

• GeorgiaClinches this week with a win over Missouri and LSU beating Texas and Texas A&M beating Tennessee and Vanderbilt beating Alabama; or with a win over Missouri and Florida beating Kentucky and Texas A&M beating Tennessee and Vanderbilt beating Alabama; or with a win over Missouri and Florida beating Kentucky and LSU beating Texas and Vanderbilt beating Alabama. Clinches by winning out.

Need help even if they win out: Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Ole Miss.

Out of the race: Arkansas, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt.

Likeliest title games

1. 52.7% of seasonsGeorgiaUGA54%46%AlabamaALA
2. 21.2% of seasonsGeorgiaUGA55%45%TexasTEX
3. 14.3% of seasonsGeorgiaUGA68%32%TennesseeTENN
4. 3.2% of seasonsGeorgiaUGA82%18%KentuckyUK
5. 2.0% of seasonsGeorgiaUGA69%31%Ole MissMISS
6. 1.7% of seasonsAlabamaALA64%36%TennesseeTENN

The games that decide the race

1. 1TexasatLSUWeek 11Sat, time TBA0.24Most at stakeTexas48.2Alabama28.5Tennessee12.3
2. 2LSUatTennesseeWeek 12Sat, time TBA0.18Most at stakeTennessee35.3Alabama18.9Texas7.5
3. 3TennesseeatTexas A&MWeek 11Sat, time TBA0.14Most at stakeTennessee28.9Alabama14.8Texas7.4
4. 4TexasatTexas A&MWeek 13Fri 7:30 PM ET, ABC0.14Most at stakeTexas31.3Alabama21.0Tennessee8.4
5. 5GeorgiaatSouth CarolinaWeek 12Sat, time TBA0.10Most at stakeGeorgia20.0Alabama17.0Texas8.8
6. 6AuburnatAlabamaWeek 13Sat, time TBA0.08Most at stakeAlabama45.9Kentucky16.3Ole Miss10.8
7. 7AlabamaatVanderbiltWeek 11Sat 12:45 PM ET, SEC Network0.07Most at stakeAlabama47.7Kentucky18.4Ole Miss12.8
8. 8MissouriatGeorgiaWeek 11Sat, time TBA0.07Most at stakeGeorgia28.1Kentucky12.9Alabama9.8

How the SEC breaks ties

The top two teams in the conference standings meet in the title game. It is played at a neutral site.

Ties are broken in this order:

1. Head-to-head results among the tied teams
2. Record against all common conference opponents
3. Record against common conference opponents, starting with the highest-placed and working down the standings
4. Combined conference winning percentage of conference opponents
5. Capped scoring margin in conference games

When a tie of three or more is cut down, the teams left start again from the first step.

Questions

Who is favored to win the SEC in 2026?

Georgia wins the SEC in 54.7% of simulated seasons, ahead of Alabama (27.4%) and Texas (10.2%).

Who will play in the SEC championship game?

The likeliest pairing is Georgia against Alabama, in 52.7% of seasons. Georgia reaches the game in 94.7% and Alabama in 57.4%.

How many SEC teams will make the College Football Playoff?

4.4 on average across the simulated seasons. Alabama makes it in 97.8%, Georgia makes it in 97.4%, Texas makes it in 76.8%.

Other conferences: ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Ten Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West Pac-12 Sun Belt

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