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LSU playoff odds
LSU makes the College Football Playoff in 36.5% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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LSU playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
LSU is 6-3 (3-3 in the SEC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 36.5% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 51.7%), wins the SEC in 0.3%, earns a top-four seed and first-round bye in 1.5% and wins the national title in 3.39%, with 8.0 projected wins.
That is the 14th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 7.
Who LSU fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move LSU's playoff odds the most.
- Boston College over Notre Dame, worth 4.63%
- Texas A&M over Tennessee, worth 3.72%
- Baylor over BYU, worth 3.48%
- SMU over Wake Forest, worth 2.92%
- Alabama over Vanderbilt, worth 2.83%
- Illinois over UCLA, worth 2.41%
What LSU needs
LSU has to win out. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 98.0%, at 8-4 in 19.7%. The game that decides the most is against Texas in week 11: 60.4% with a win, 8.7% with a loss. It reaches the SEC title game in 0.7% of seasons. Winning it puts LSU at 100.0% and losing it at 95.6%; missing it leaves 36.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Texas | 53.7% | 60.4% | 8.7% |
| Week 12 | at Tennessee | 54.9% | 59.1% | 8.9% |
| Week 13 | at Arkansas | 88.8% | 40.5% | 4.8% |
LSU's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | 28.4% | 98.0% |
| 8-4 | 43.7% | 19.7% |
| 7-5 | 24.5% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 3.3% | <0.1% |
LSU's results
week 1, beat Clemson 51-10; week 2, beat Louisiana Tech 45-14; week 3, lost to Ole Miss 24-32; week 4, beat Texas A&M 35-6; week 5, beat McNeese 63-14; week 6, lost to Kentucky 34-35; week 7, beat Mississippi State 31-0; week 8, beat Auburn 38-17; week 10, lost to Alabama 13-31.
The SEC race
| Team | Wins the SEC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 54.7% | 97.4% |
| Alabama | 27.4% | 97.8% |
| Texas | 10.2% | 76.8% |
| Tennessee | 5.5% | 43.0% |
| Kentucky | 1.0% | 39.6% |
| Ole Miss | 0.7% | 32.7% |
| LSU | 0.3% | 36.5% |
| Oklahoma | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| South Carolina | 0.1% | 8.3% |
| Missouri | <0.1% | 2.6% |
The SEC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will LSU make the College Football Playoff?
- LSU is 6-3 and makes the playoff in 36.5% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 8.0 projected wins. It wins the SEC in 0.3% and the national title in 3.39%.
- What does LSU need to make the playoff?
- LSU has to win out. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 98.0%, at 8-4 in 19.7%. The game that decides the most is against Texas in week 11: 60.4% with a win, 8.7% with a loss. It reaches the SEC title game in 0.7% of seasons. Winning it puts LSU at 100.0% and losing it at 95.6%; missing it leaves 36.1%.
- Who should LSU fans root for in week 11?
- Boston College over Notre Dame, worth 4.63% in playoff odds, then Texas A&M over Tennessee.
- What is LSU's toughest game left?
- Hosting Texas in week 11, with a 53.7% chance to win.
- How are LSU's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in LSU's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.